Category Archives: Election Profiles

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JUN 5/6 2010 – WEALTHY GREENS NEW DLP – The Weekend Australian

Category:Election Profiles,National 2010

In all the millions of dollars the Prime Minister and Treasurer spent on market research and advertising plans for their new resource super profits tax, they don’t seem to have been told the richest voters in Australia are not Liberals, but Greens.

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Apr 2009 – Qld Election Report

Category:Election Profiles,QLD

Our ADS Elaborate modelling explained 96 percent of the variance in the 2PP ALP vote at the Queensland elections on March 21, 2009. The modelling showed swings to Labor in poor country towns and outer working class suburbs were led by those voters receiving the biggest slice of the $4 billion dollars in Rudd stimulus cheques in the ten days before the poll, wheras the swings against Labor were led by the higher income inner suburban families who were paying for it.

file icon pdf QLD STATE ELECTION REPORT April 2009_5.pdf

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2007 – Election Profile

Category:Election Profiles,National 2007

Kevin Rudd in 2007 achieved the impossible and breathed life into the Whitlam era blue collar Labor voter. Across Australian working class suburbs and electorates, the Whitlam profile stirred into life via the sons and daughters of Gough. In fact the profile of the Rudd majority looks a little like a seventies Gough Whitlam rally held in a Queensland rural Church hall – Blacktown meets Nambour – with high school educated skilled and unskilled blue collar workers sitting side by side with the evangelical and activist religions.


file icon pdf Election Report 2007



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Where the ALP lost its longtime supporters

Category:Election Profiles,National 2013

LAST Saturday, in polling booths inside $14.2 billion worth of new school halls constructed under Labor’s Building the Education Revolution program, a bare 33.9 per cent of Australian electors voted for Labor candidates.

It was the lowest primary vote won by the ALP since 1903, when the fledgling party won 31 per cent of the primary vote.





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1998 – Election Profile

Category:Election Profiles,National 1998


Electoral Snakes and Ladders

Anyone who has played snakes and ladders knows that, just before the winning square, there is always a big bad snake’s head, to take the would be winner right back to square one.

The ALP 1998 almost-victory is a classic tale of electoral snakes and ladders.

Labor candidates won 51.4 percent of the combined national vote, after preferences.

Using the cube rule, or the swing pendulum, which links the national vote with the number of seats won (after a uniform national swing), Labor candidates should have won about 80 seats, leaving John Howard with only 68.

Well comrades, we got the votes, and moved cheerfully up along the cube rule line, or the swing pendulum, right to the 80 seat mark, only to find the Coalition had got there before us, and moved the cube rule line vertically up by more than two percent. This big bad snake in the form of a new cube rule curve took Kim Beazley on a roller coaster back down to what looks like 66 seats.

According to the swing pendulum, the ALP needed a swing of about four percent of the vote, after preferences, to win a majority of the seats. Labor actually obtained a swing of 5.1 percent, after preferences, and yet still needs another 0.8 percent to win a majority of the seats. Anyone silly enough to still take notice of the pendulum device to predict the outcome in the House of Representatives should not be gainfully employed by any major party.

So, how does a party win a majority of preferred votes but not a majority of the seats?

The answer to the riddle is at once simple and complex.\

Read more…  file icon pdf Electoral Snakes and Ladders.pdf



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Religion and Politics

Category:Election Profiles,National 2007

In the 2007 election, we saw significant swings to the Christian Kevin Rudd led Labor Party across seats where religions such as Pentecostals and Lutherans were strongly represented and this relationship between the outer urban Pentecostals and the more rural Lutherans proved enduring enough to last right through to the end of the modelling process. Here’s the data on these two faiths and on the major mainstream religions, by new Commonwealth electorates, so you can see for yourselves what impact the loss of Rudd makes on election night.


file icon pdf Religion by CED.pdf



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Notes on Political Economy June 10

Category:Election Profiles,National 2010

In this note we are presenting some data relevant to the current Australian political economy, where we are in the middle of an election campaign, albeit a very boring one, and at the tail end of a major economic downturn, which is turning out to have quite a sting in its for poorer sections of the Australian community, in the outlying suburbs of our major cities and in our major provincial regions which do not contain any miners or workers benefiting from the mining industry. And yet no politicians are talking about unemployment as a current problem.

file icon pdf ADS RUIN NOTES June 2010.pdf



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The original One Nation Profile

Category:Election Profiles,National 1998

Back in 1998 the major parties were under pressure from One Nation, particularly in the State of Queensland, where the fledgling party scored well amongst the older, rural, Australian born, less well educated and those with low-income, blue collar jobs. Fast forward to 2011 and the major parties are again under pressure with Green and Independent votes on the rise. This research piece, originally done for the Courier Mail in 1998, profiles the antecedents of the rural protest vote.

file icon pdf One Nation VoteCourier Mail September 22 1998_1.pdf