Project 2A 1966-75 Averages
This second project begins where the South Australian project ends. We start with an acceptable methodology and preliminary indications that a similar national analysis could find a strong relationship between class and vote, and weaker relationships between swing and both age and public housing tenancy.
Click to continue reading: Project 2A 1966-75 averages
Project 2B 1966-69
V1 – 1966 2PP ALP Vote
V7 – 1966-69 2PP Swing
For the period 1966 to 1975 discussion has concentrated on the mean votes and the absolute mean swings. The remaining five sections of this project which deal with the 1966 vote and the 1966 to 1969 swing, the 1969 vote and the 1969 to 1972 swing etc., are discussed in less detail. The mean figures have provided the broad outlines of this period and the election-to-election results provide the details which are necessary to complete the picture.
For actual votes from election to election the following discussion will deal in detail with the Pearson correlations, the regression equations and the bar chart figures only if they demonstrate some clear divergence from the average.
The discussion of the votes will instead pay more attention to areas of overperformance and underperformance as shown in the residuals.
Click to continue reading: Project 2B 1966-69
Project 2C 1969-72
V2 – 1969 2PP ALP vote
V8 – 1969-72 2PP Swing
Table 2.22 is similar to both the mean table 2.3 and the equivalent 1966 table 2.16. The pro-Labor voters comprise craftsmen, transport workers, younger workers, especially young female workers, and all employees. In the case of 2.22 however these pro-Labor groups are joined by the public housing tenants who swung to Labor between 1966 and 1969.
The anti-Labor groups in table 2.22 are also similar to both the mean table 2.3 and the 1966 table 2.17, with employers and the self-employed being joined by the elderly, the better-educated (non degree tertiary and the wealthy (with two plus cars). The class-vote relationship appears to have been stable too between 1966 and 1969, with similar Pearson correlations for the top pro-Labor (craftsmen) and anti-Labor (employers) groups. The only persons who would be surprised by this sort of result would be the Prime Minister’s present academic advisors.
Click to continue reading: Project 2C 1969-72