Category Archives: QLD

  • 28
    Oct 24
  • -
Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens, as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the ashes of the old Australian Democrats 20 years ago.

Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens

Category:Election Profiles,QLD,Qld Election 2024Tags : 

I wrote a Queensland State election preview for the Australian Financial Review which appeared at the weekend and the link is here, albeit behind the AFR paywall.   https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/queensland-vote-a-pivotal-moment-for-greens-20241024-p5kkyl The story is headlined:  Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens,  as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the

  • 31
    Oct 24
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Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s.

John Stanley & John Black 28th October, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles,QLD,Qld Election 2024Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this week, following my articles in the Australian Financial Review and my social media post on last weekend’s Queensland State election.   The interview with John was longer than usual and gave us a chance to deal a bit more in depth with the political implications of the State

  • 06
    Feb 15
  • 0

2015 – Qld State Election Report

Category:Election Profiles,Maps - Elections,QLD,Qld Election 2015

A week after the election on January 31, it is still unclear which of the two major parties will form a Government. The most likely outcome is a minority Labor Government supported by Independent Peter Wellington. Labor candidates won an estimated 50.9 percent of the two party preferred (2PP) vote, but Labor appears likely to

  • 16
    Jul 14
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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF QLD VOTES IN 2012

Category:Election Profiles,Maps - Elections,QLD,Qld Election 2012

The strongest swings against the ALP in 2012 were from Labor’s own 2009 Labor voters. This swing correlation of minus 0.67 from Labor’s Queensland state 2009 support base was even bigger than the swing correlation of minus 0.57 against the NSW ALP from its support base last year. In other words, the biggest swings against

  • 08
    Sep 13
  • 0

Apr 2009 – Qld Election Report

Category:Election Profiles,QLD

Our ADS Elaborate modelling explained 96 percent of the variance in the 2PP ALP vote at the Queensland elections on March 21, 2009. The modelling showed swings to Labor in poor country towns and outer working class suburbs were led by those voters receiving the biggest slice of the $4 billion dollars in Rudd stimulus

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John Black was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about his current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17.

2GB’s John Stanley & John Black 30th Dec, 2024

December 30, 2024
Profile of Modelled Primary & 2PP votes by Incomes for Families- with kids.

Forthcoming Federal Elections Current State of Play Across Individual Seats

December 27, 2024
Election Time - John Black had a chat with Laura Tingle on the ABC 7:30 Report on Monday night about the possible range of outcomes for the political parties

Election Time Again

December 3, 2024

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Recent News

John Black was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about his current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17.

2GB’s John Stanley & John Black 30th Dec, 2024

December 30, 2024
Profile of Modelled Primary & 2PP votes by Incomes for Families- with kids.

Forthcoming Federal Elections Current State of Play Across Individual Seats

December 27, 2024
Election Time - John Black had a chat with Laura Tingle on the ABC 7:30 Report on Monday night about the possible range of outcomes for the political parties

Election Time Again

December 3, 2024

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