Category Archives: Election Profiles

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PROJECT 3 Australia 1975-77

Category:National 1966-80,Project 3 Australia 1975-77

 

Introduction:

Project two provided a complete national demographic analysis of variations in the Labor vote between 1966 and 1975. The demographic data was based on the application of the 1968 boundaries to the 1971 census results and the political data was based on national 1966-75 2PP votes and swings in the 1968 electorates.

In 1977 there was a national redistribution and a national election in quick succession. The 1976 data had not been collated by the Bureau of Statistics on either 1968 or 1977 boundaries by early 1978 when a review of the 1977 elections was required.

Click to continue reading:  Project 3 Australia 1975-77


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PROJECT 7 – Key Groups for 1983

Category:National 1966-80,Project 7 Key Groups for 1983

 

Introduction:

In this project I will deal with factors endogenous to the demographic model developed in projects one to siX. This part will draw together and summarise the relevant material on long-run volatility, the groups which have drifted towards or away from Labor during 1966-80, the 1980 Australian Democrat voters and voters living in the key 1983 seats. Particular attention will also be paid to the key seats and the relationship between votes and seats.

Click to continue reading: Project 7 Key Groups for 1983


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PROJECT 6 – Key Seats

Category:National 1966-80,Project 6 Key Seats

Introduction:

One of the facts of political life in Australia is that swings at election time are never uniform.

Table 6.1 presented below shows that since 1961 the range of swing has typically been about five times as large as the mean swing.

Click to continue reading: Project 6 Key Seats


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PROJECT 5 – The Australian Democrats

Category:National 1966-80,Project 5 The Australian Democrats


Introduction:

The Australian Democrats were formed in mid-1977 under the leadership of ex-Liberal Minister Don Chipp. The party was formed primarily to provide a vehicle for the Victorian Senate Campaign of its Leader and to a lesser extent a power base in the Senate for the same man.

In this context the aim of the part was to win support in roughly equal proportions from both major political groupings by gaining (Senate) votes from the “middle-ground”. In the lower house the party furthered this strategy by contesting as many seats as possible, winning votes from weakly-aligned pro and anti-Labor groups, and then returning this support via a two-sided how to vote card.

Click to continue reading:  Project 5: The Australian Democrats


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PROJECT 1 – SA 1973 to 1977

Category:National 1966-80,Project 1 SA 1973-77

 

Project 1 – South Australian Research

This project summarises demographic research into the South Australian elections of 1973 and 1975. The research was used by strategists to help plan the successful S.A. 1977 election campaign.

Project one was included in the present report to show the background and development of demographic research techniques and to put these techniques into the broader context of a complete campaign strategy.

Project one is also useful for the reader in that it integrates theoretical work in a reasonably-practical manner with a campaign that was really quite successful in terms of what it set out to do (see sections 7D and 7E).

Click to continue reading: Project 1 – South A


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PROJECT 4 – Australia : 1977-1980

Category:National 1966-80,Project 4 Australia 1977-80

 

Project 4 – Part One

Introduction:

Projects two and three have provided a demographic analysis of variations in the Labor vote from 1966 to 1977, using the 1971 Census data and the 1968 boundaries.

In 1976 a national census was taken which for the first time included questions dealing with income. In 1977 there was a distribution of electorates and a national election, followed by another national election in 1980.

It was resolved to analyse the 1977 and 1980 election results using the 1976 census data which had been allocated by the Bureau of Statistics on to the 1977 electoral boundaries.

Click to continue reading: Project 4 – Part One

 

Project 4  – Part Two

Extract from Chapter entitled “Australia” by Dr Marian Simms, Canberra College of Advanced Education, to be published in J.Hills and J. Lavenduski (eds). The Politics of the Second Electorate: Women and Public Participation, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1981.

1. Are women more conservative than men?

Senator Susan Ryan (1979, p.3) while calling for the ALP to take positive steps to appeal to the women voters decried the face that their support for Labor had ‘lagged several percent behind’ that of men.

In order to examine her statement and ascertain recent tendencies I look at 36 Age Polls from March 1971 to April 1979, to try and map this difference between the sexes in their support for the ALP. I wanted to see whether we could detect any pattern: were the differences increasing or decreasing?

Click to continue reading:  Project 4 – Part Two

 


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PROJECT 2 – Australia 1966-75

Category:National 1966-80,Project 2 Australia 1966-75

 

Project 2A  1966-75 Averages

Introduction: 

This second project begins where the South Australian project ends. We start with an acceptable methodology and preliminary indications that a similar national analysis could find a strong relationship between class and vote, and weaker relationships between swing and both age and public housing tenancy.

Click to continue reading: Project 2A 1966-75 averages

 

Project 2B  1966-69 

V1 – 1966 2PP ALP  Vote

V7 – 1966-69 2PP Swing

For the period 1966 to 1975 discussion has concentrated on the mean votes and the absolute mean swings. The remaining five sections of this project which deal with the 1966 vote and the 1966 to 1969 swing, the 1969 vote and the 1969 to 1972 swing etc., are discussed in less detail. The mean figures have provided the broad outlines of this period and the election-to-election results provide the details which are necessary to complete the picture.

For actual votes from election to election the following discussion will deal in detail with the Pearson correlations, the regression equations and the bar chart figures only if they demonstrate some clear divergence from the average.
The discussion of the votes will instead pay more attention to areas of overperformance and underperformance as shown in the residuals.

Click to continue reading: Project 2B 1966-69

 

Project 2C   1969-72 

V2 – 1969 2PP ALP vote
V8 – 1969-72 2PP Swing

Table 2.22 is similar to both the mean table 2.3 and the equivalent 1966 table 2.16. The pro-Labor voters comprise craftsmen, transport workers, younger workers, especially young female workers, and all employees. In the case of 2.22 however these pro-Labor groups are joined by the public housing tenants who swung to Labor between 1966 and 1969.

The anti-Labor groups in table 2.22 are also similar to both the mean table 2.3 and the 1966 table 2.17, with employers and the self-employed being joined by the elderly, the better-educated (non degree tertiary and the wealthy (with two plus cars). The class-vote relationship appears to have been stable too between 1966 and 1969, with similar Pearson correlations for the top pro-Labor (craftsmen) and anti-Labor (employers) groups. The only persons who would be surprised by this sort of result would be the Prime Minister’s present academic advisors.

Click to continue reading:  Project 2C  1969-72


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Election Analysis - 2019

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2019

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Here’s a fantastic Esri map done by Australian Development Strategies and Education Geographics Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan. It’s online, completely interactive, public and you can email it to your fellow election tragics. You can blow it up, reduce it, drag it around or select an address and see how it rated on each layer. Open it up at the link below, and then click on the little button in the top right corner of the page, to get some tips on how t o use it.

Among the other buttons at top right of the map, there are, from left, layers Layer icon on Esri Map for all the key variables which decided who won the 2019 election, there’s bookmarks Bookmark icon on Esri map for the major regions, so you can go there directly, there’s a score sheet of key indicators Score sheet indicator - Esri map toolbar under every screen being viewed with standardised scores (move the map around and watch the numbers update), there’s the info button Info icon on the Esri Map Toolbar, a share button Share icon on Esri map so you can post the map to social media, a seat button Choose a seat - Icon on Esri Map, so you can check out the scores for each individual seat and finally the legend for each layer displayed. Hours of fun from our mapper.

The link is https://egs-au.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=1a84d2f75fe04666a7501c5cd7921c0f


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THE (almost) LAST POST ON LABOR FROM 2019 ELECTION

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Hi there political tragics. The 2019 election has been fought and finalised and we’re just about finished our preview of the poll and our demographic wrap up.

Based on the research we have read and done ourselves, Labor lost an election it didn’t need to lose, after a campaign in which it offered higher taxes and spending, via an unpopular Leader Bill Shorten.

Labor’s campaign fell flat in working class seats across the outer suburbs and provincial cities across the country. The promises of higher spending failed to resonate with those voters it sought to attract: swinging voters and working families.

The Liberal campaign was led by a boofy suburban Church-going bloke nicknamed ScoMo, who has consistently under-promised and over-delivered in his previous portfolios.

He promised minimal additional spending and tax cuts for business and middle-income earners. This campaign worked a treat with working class and middle-class families, along with Grey voters and active Christians, but the Coalition’s lack of a credible policy on Global Warming cost the Coalition dearly among wealthier, better educated voters inside the Goat Cheese Circle.

With both major party groupings finishing up on between 49 and 51 percent of the vote, either side could have won the 2019 election.

The Coalition won because its rise in support was spread across big numbers of marginal suburban and provincial city seats, whereas the ALP campaign only worked in a smaller number of safe seats in the Goat Cheese Circle and our bigger University suburbs and towns.

That’s all she wrote really.

Here’s a few links for those of you who want more details.

First, here’s a fantastic Esri map done by our Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan. It’s online and completely interactive. Open it up at this link and click on the little Info icon on the Esri Map Toolbar button in the top right corner of the page, to get some tips on how to use it. You’re welcome to share it around.

The link is https://egs-au.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=1a84d2f75fe04666a7501c5cd7921c0f

There’s other links on our web page, including all my original profiling work on Australian historical election records, going back to 1966. https://www.elaborate.net.au/category/election-profiles/

There’s a few blogs already posted under Recent News on the same page.

The one from May 16 on Stereotypes and Voting, previews the election, at https://www.elaborate.net.au/stereotypes-and-voting/

The Religious Rudd and the Grey Voters posted on election day took a look at how these groups looked like moving later that night and turned out be reasonably useful.
https://www.elaborate.net.au/the-religious-rudd-and-the-grey-voters/

After the election there is a May 20 post on the long-term decline in Labor’s vote among working families and its rise among professionals, entitled Shifting Demographic Tectonics. https://www.elaborate.net.au/shifting-demographic-tectonics/

Finally, there’s a story on the decline of the Labor vote among male miners in what used to be its provincial electoral fortresses, see Labor Digs a Hole with Miners. https://www.elaborate.net.au/labour-digs-a-hole-with-miners/


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Labor Digs A Hole With Miners - Federal Election 2019

LABOR DIGS A HOLE WITH MINERS

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Hello again, political tragics. As we proceed with our 2019 profiling, the longer-term damage Labor has done to itself with working class men just keeps getting uglier.

The chart here tracks the declining profile of miners for the ALP since we first profiled national elections back in 1966.

Labor Digs A Hole With Miners - Federal Election 2019

In 1966 the Labor Party and Labour Movement were the same group in strong mining seats, such as Hunter, held by Labor MPs since 1910.

After male Tradies, male miners were the second most significant driver of the Labor 2PP vote in 1966. The strong mining seat of Hunter recorded a 1966 2PP vote for Labor of 74.4 percent, which was ten percent above the vote predicted by our 1966 model.

So Labor was not only winning the votes from miners, but winning extra votes from mining families, turning mining towns and cities like Newcastle and Broken Hill into Labor fortresses. If you worked in the mines, you were in the union and if you were in the union, you voted Labor and so did your family and your neighbours.

From 1966, the vote for Labor in mining seats began a long-term decline, with the profile for miners falling into negative territory in 1998. By 2019 male miners were as big a negative driver for Labor as they had been a positive driver in 1966. In other words, you were more likely to find miners in Coalition seats than Labor seats and the stats were significant to more than 99.9 percent confidence levels.

In 2019, the three seats with the largest 10 percent plus swings to the Coalition were Dawson, Capricornia and the above seat of Hunter, three of the top eight seats for male miners as a share of the male workforce.

The first two of these mining seats – Dawson and Capricornia – are now held by the Queensland LNP, with Hunter, the former rock-solid Labor seat now reduced to marginal status on 52.5 percent 2PP for Labor.

In fact, of the top eight seats for male miners, all but Hunter now elect non-Labor MPs.

To add insult to injury, when we were modelling the swings to the Coalition across these three mining seats, not only did they record ten percent plus swings to the Coalition, but these swings averaged five percent greater in each seat than the national swing model was predicting.

So miners are voting for the Coalition, so are their families and their neighbours. The model from 1966 has been turned completely on its head.

The mining fortress for Labor among working class men in the mines has fallen. Rebuilding it seems a task too far for the Labor party by 2022, if it remains fixated on fighting back the Green challenge to its MPs in its inner urban Green Left seats. The miners don’t want to pay for them anymore.

To quote Labor’s great Finance Minister from the Hawke Government WA Senator Peter Walsh: if you base your policy on the demands of a minor party, you are destined to become one.


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