Category Archives: Election Profiles

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Political Voices: Past, Present and Future

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

Profiling of the Voices 2019 demographics by Australian Development Strategies shows that grassroots campaigns by Voices candidates against Liberals in 2022 – led by professional women – could be even more devastating for Labor MPs if turned against them in 2025.

This means that the Federal election of 2022 is not so much a contest between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but more a contest about what future Labor and Liberal Governments will look like.

In the mid-1980’s, male Tradespersons was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and Tradies dominated the ALP voting profile, and Female Professionals played an equally important role for the Liberal voting profile.

But both major parties have been challenged in 2022 by the loss of their historical bases of primary vote support during the past 40 years, among Tradies and Miners for Labor, and among Professionals for the Liberals.

The problem for both major parties is that, by November 2021, Female Professionals was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and there were twice as many Professional Persons as Tradespersons, Clerks or Service Workers. And their vote is up for grabs.

I chart the demographics underling the decline in the attached
🔗 PDF – Political Voices Past, Present and Future

Political Voices Past, Present and Future by John Black, Australian Development Strategies

Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.

Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.

Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022

Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Map showing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right)

 


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Australia votes on Saturday 21, 2022 and commented by John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Federal Election Profiles 2022

Category:Australia Votes,Election Profiles 2022 Tags : 

 

5 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 16th May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election Campaign Enters Final Sprint
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-campaign-enters-final-sprint/13883250

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


1 Week to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Friday 13th, May 2022
As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats tea. Female professionals lead the demographic desertion in what use to be the safest Coalition electorates.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review Friday May 13, 2022 Page 43 snip to PDF.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Inner Brissie could have gone Teal

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 2nd May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Labor on track for win
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-on-track-for-election-win/13862818

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Thursday 21 April, 2022
Albo’s not kicking with the wind
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Albo's not kicking with the wind. Despite the self-inflicted wounds, Labour remains in front in a majority of seats. But the margins are getting tighter.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Thursday, April 21, 2022, pages from 38 to 38.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go to Pre-Poll Voting

Tuesday 19th April, 2022

Australia Votes May 21, 2022  Starts May 9, 2022, 12 days before voting day on May 21, 2022.
🔗 https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/how-to-vote/how-to-cast-your-vote

 


4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 19th April, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election still Labor’s to lose
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/john-black:-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose/13844148

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 13th April, 2022
Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, April 13, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 11th April, 2022
🎙 “Are the published opinion polls correct?”
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/are-the-published-opinion-polls-correct/13835438 

Guest: 
John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Available now through the ABC listen App – bit.ly/ABCradioApp

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


11 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 29th March, 2022
Don’t order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Don't order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, March 29, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 15th February, 2022
Women To Deliver Shock Election
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Women to deliver election shocks

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, February 15, 2022, pages from 36 to 37.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future

 To Read click link
🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/

 


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Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

If you want to know which federal seats were more likely to show swings to the Opposition at the start of this election campaign, then the Esri map in this link isn’t a bad place to start. 

Link 🔗  2022 FEDERAL ELECTION KEY INDICATORS (arcgis.com)

Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

The online Esri map uses the latest Australian Electoral Commission data on age groups for men and women by current federal seats and draws on 50 years of election profiling of Federal and State elections.  

When you open the Esri map, click on the three dots at top right to see the legend and then on the bookmark icon to zip between capital cities and territories. The map works on mobile phones and PCs.

The dark maroon electorates are those containing a mix of age groups covering maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition. 

We see strong clusters of these seats containing high proportions of persons aged 35 to 49 years in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. They cover a range of political allegiances, from traditionally safe Liberal to strong Labor.

With 2PP swings to the ALP of about five percent in the first week of the campaign, we would expect to see a range of swings of up to 25 percent, with plus five percent for Labor being the mid-point.

Of course, the figures will change during the campaign and other demographic indicators will emerge to pull some seats to swing to the Coalition. We will map these during the coming weeks.

This election I’m writing some research articles for the Australian Financial Review and doing Monday morning interviews with Radio National on election modelling for the May 21, 2022 election.

Catch you on the campaign trail, folks.  


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2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2022 Tags : 

If you want to know which federal seats are most likely to swing strongly to the Teal candidates at the Federal election on May 21, check out the 🔗Map below.

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

The map shows  the percentage of top income quartile persons in 2022 Federal seats in darker shades of teal and is modelled by ADS from the latest available Australian Tax Office data.

Demographic break downs of national Newspoll summaries published in The Australian between early 2020 and the start of the 2022 election campaign, indicate that about one in eight voters in this top income quartile had swung their previously strong support in primary vote terms from the Coalition, directly across to Voices or “Teal” candidates, where a Teal candidate was available.

To put this in perspective, in early 2020, nearly half of all voters in this income group cast their vote for Coalition candidates and in the first quarter of 2022, this figure was down to one in three.

While this may well be the national sentiment among top income earners, where no Teal candidate is available at this election, there is still likely to be a smaller Two Party Preferred swing from the Coalition to Labor from about one in 12 voters among this group.  This disaffection from top income workers represents serious hurt for Liberal MPs in what have been their traditional strongholds.

We’ve been looking at the demographic breakdowns by income in individual seat polls and nothing we’ve seen so far contradicts the above trend up to the second week of the campaign.

Nonetheless, we will be watching future Newspoll summaries, presuming another one is available before the election.


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PROJECT 3 Australia 1975-77

Category:National 1966-80,Project 3 Australia 1975-77

 

Introduction:

Project two provided a complete national demographic analysis of variations in the Labor vote between 1966 and 1975. The demographic data was based on the application of the 1968 boundaries to the 1971 census results and the political data was based on national 1966-75 2PP votes and swings in the 1968 electorates.

In 1977 there was a national redistribution and a national election in quick succession. The 1976 data had not been collated by the Bureau of Statistics on either 1968 or 1977 boundaries by early 1978 when a review of the 1977 elections was required.

Click to continue reading:  Project 3 Australia 1975-77


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PROJECT 7 – Key Groups for 1983

Category:National 1966-80,Project 7 Key Groups for 1983

 

Introduction:

In this project I will deal with factors endogenous to the demographic model developed in projects one to siX. This part will draw together and summarise the relevant material on long-run volatility, the groups which have drifted towards or away from Labor during 1966-80, the 1980 Australian Democrat voters and voters living in the key 1983 seats. Particular attention will also be paid to the key seats and the relationship between votes and seats.

Click to continue reading: Project 7 Key Groups for 1983


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PROJECT 6 – Key Seats

Category:National 1966-80,Project 6 Key Seats

Introduction:

One of the facts of political life in Australia is that swings at election time are never uniform.

Table 6.1 presented below shows that since 1961 the range of swing has typically been about five times as large as the mean swing.

Click to continue reading: Project 6 Key Seats


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PROJECT 5 – The Australian Democrats

Category:National 1966-80,Project 5 The Australian Democrats


Introduction:

The Australian Democrats were formed in mid-1977 under the leadership of ex-Liberal Minister Don Chipp. The party was formed primarily to provide a vehicle for the Victorian Senate Campaign of its Leader and to a lesser extent a power base in the Senate for the same man.

In this context the aim of the part was to win support in roughly equal proportions from both major political groupings by gaining (Senate) votes from the “middle-ground”. In the lower house the party furthered this strategy by contesting as many seats as possible, winning votes from weakly-aligned pro and anti-Labor groups, and then returning this support via a two-sided how to vote card.

Click to continue reading:  Project 5: The Australian Democrats


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PROJECT 1 – SA 1973 to 1977

Category:National 1966-80,Project 1 SA 1973-77

 

Project 1 – South Australian Research

This project summarises demographic research into the South Australian elections of 1973 and 1975. The research was used by strategists to help plan the successful S.A. 1977 election campaign.

Project one was included in the present report to show the background and development of demographic research techniques and to put these techniques into the broader context of a complete campaign strategy.

Project one is also useful for the reader in that it integrates theoretical work in a reasonably-practical manner with a campaign that was really quite successful in terms of what it set out to do (see sections 7D and 7E).

Click to continue reading: Project 1 – South A


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PROJECT 4 – Australia : 1977-1980

Category:National 1966-80,Project 4 Australia 1977-80

 

Project 4 – Part One

Introduction:

Projects two and three have provided a demographic analysis of variations in the Labor vote from 1966 to 1977, using the 1971 Census data and the 1968 boundaries.

In 1976 a national census was taken which for the first time included questions dealing with income. In 1977 there was a distribution of electorates and a national election, followed by another national election in 1980.

It was resolved to analyse the 1977 and 1980 election results using the 1976 census data which had been allocated by the Bureau of Statistics on to the 1977 electoral boundaries.

Click to continue reading: Project 4 – Part One

 

Project 4  – Part Two

Extract from Chapter entitled “Australia” by Dr Marian Simms, Canberra College of Advanced Education, to be published in J.Hills and J. Lavenduski (eds). The Politics of the Second Electorate: Women and Public Participation, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1981.

1. Are women more conservative than men?

Senator Susan Ryan (1979, p.3) while calling for the ALP to take positive steps to appeal to the women voters decried the face that their support for Labor had ‘lagged several percent behind’ that of men.

In order to examine her statement and ascertain recent tendencies I look at 36 Age Polls from March 1971 to April 1979, to try and map this difference between the sexes in their support for the ALP. I wanted to see whether we could detect any pattern: were the differences increasing or decreasing?

Click to continue reading:  Project 4 – Part Two

 


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