Category Archives: Election Profiles

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Australia votes on Saturday 21, 2022 and commented by John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Federal Election Profiles 2022

Category:Australia Votes,Election Profiles 2022 Tags : 

Monday 20th June, 2022
Party Machines Conking Out
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Party Machines Conking Out

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Monday, June 20, 2022, pages from 36 to 37 -1.pdf

 

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com

 



2022 Federal Election Swing Map

The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.

The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).

The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.  

Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.

The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.

While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.

The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.

See story in  The Australian Financial Review 

Click to view interactive ADS 2022 Election Map

2022 Federal Election Swing Map


2022 Election Results – Summary for EGS Clients
Friday 27th May, 2022
by  EGS Founder John Black

Did a short presentation with Saul Eslake today on the 2022 election results and the implications for Education Geographics Client Schools, with particular relevance to the election of new Teal MPs. It makes interesting reading.

🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/PDF/Presentation 27 May 2022.pdf

2022 Election Results - Summary for EGS Clients by EGS Founder John Black

 


Election Profiles 2022

Monday 23rd May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election earthquake signals death of major parties
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-earthquake-signals-death-of-major-parties/13893828

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/

 


Election Profiles 2022

Monday 23rd May, 2022
Women’s teal wave could keep breaking in 2025
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Women's Teal vote could keep breaking in 2025

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Monday, May 23, 2022, pages from 13 to 13.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


1 Day to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Friday 20th May, 2022
Coalition Closing Gap On Labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Coalition closing gap on Labor by John Black

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Friday, May 20, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


2 days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Due to popular demand (my wife Jeanine thought it was a good idea), I’m re-posting the PDF I prepared a few months ago for my Australian Financial Review article of February 15 on the rise of the Teal vote and the associated decline of the primary vote for the major parties. It may help you on election night to understand why the major party primary votes have fallen, and also to  follow the larger swings to Labor in seats where popular Coalition members have retired, such as Bennelong or Casey.

Monday 14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future

 To Read click link
🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/

 


3 days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 18th May,2022
How House Prices Reflect The Way You Vote
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

How house prices reflect the way you vote by John Black

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 18, 2022, pages from 14 to 14.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


5 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 16th May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election Campaign Enters Final Sprint
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-campaign-enters-final-sprint/13883250

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


1 Week to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Friday 13th, May 2022
As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats tea. Female professionals lead the demographic desertion in what use to be the safest Coalition electorates.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review Friday May 13, 2022 Page 43 snip to PDF.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Inner Brissie could have gone Teal

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 2nd May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Labor on track for win
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-on-track-for-election-win/13862818

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Thursday 21 April, 2022
Albo’s not kicking with the wind
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Albo's not kicking with the wind. Despite the self-inflicted wounds, Labour remains in front in a majority of seats. But the margins are getting tighter.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Thursday, April 21, 2022, pages from 38 to 38.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go to Pre-Poll Voting

Tuesday 19th April, 2022

Australia Votes May 21, 2022  Starts May 9, 2022, 12 days before voting day on May 21, 2022.
🔗 https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/how-to-vote/how-to-cast-your-vote

 


4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 19th April, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election still Labor’s to lose
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/john-black:-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose/13844148

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 13th April, 2022
Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, April 13, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 11th April, 2022
🎙 “Are the published opinion polls correct?”
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/are-the-published-opinion-polls-correct/13835438 

Guest: 
John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Available now through the ABC listen App – bit.ly/ABCradioApp

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


11 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 29th March, 2022
Don’t order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Don't order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, March 29, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 15th February, 2022
Women To Deliver Shock Election
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Women to deliver election shocks

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, February 15, 2022, pages from 36 to 37.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future

 To Read click link
🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/

 


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2022 Federal Election Swing Map

2022 Federal Election Swing Map

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2022

The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.

The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).

The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.  

Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.

The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.

While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.

The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.

See story in  The Australian Financial Review 

Click to view interactive ADS 2022 Election Map

2022 Federal Election Swing Map


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What if the PM ended the climate wars for good

What if the PM ended the climate wars for good?

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2022

If Labor’s 2030 carbon emissions target is blocked by the Greens in the Senate, most Canberra Observers would expect Anthony Albanese to crab walk away. But what could happen in a double dissolution if he called their bluff, to end the Climate Wars started by the Greens in 2009?

🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/PDF/Financial Review, Friday, July 15, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf

📷AFR

 


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Political Voices: A Map

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.

Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.

Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022

Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Map showing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right)

 

 


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Political Voices: Past, Present and Future

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

Profiling of the Voices 2019 demographics by Australian Development Strategies shows that grassroots campaigns by Voices candidates against Liberals in 2022 – led by professional women – could be even more devastating for Labor MPs if turned against them in 2025.

This means that the Federal election of 2022 is not so much a contest between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but more a contest about what future Labor and Liberal Governments will look like.

In the mid-1980’s, male Tradespersons was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and Tradies dominated the ALP voting profile, and Female Professionals played an equally important role for the Liberal voting profile.

But both major parties have been challenged in 2022 by the loss of their historical bases of primary vote support during the past 40 years, among Tradies and Miners for Labor, and among Professionals for the Liberals.

The problem for both major parties is that, by November 2021, Female Professionals was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and there were twice as many Professional Persons as Tradespersons, Clerks or Service Workers. And their vote is up for grabs.

I chart the demographics underling the decline in the attached
🔗 PDF – Political Voices Past, Present and Future

Political Voices Past, Present and Future by John Black, Australian Development Strategies

Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.

Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.

Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022

Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Map showing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right)

 


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Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

If you want to know which federal seats were more likely to show swings to the Opposition at the start of this election campaign, then the Esri map in this link isn’t a bad place to start. 

Link 🔗  2022 FEDERAL ELECTION KEY INDICATORS (arcgis.com)

Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

The online Esri map uses the latest Australian Electoral Commission data on age groups for men and women by current federal seats and draws on 50 years of election profiling of Federal and State elections.  

When you open the Esri map, click on the three dots at top right to see the legend and then on the bookmark icon to zip between capital cities and territories. The map works on mobile phones and PCs.

The dark maroon electorates are those containing a mix of age groups covering maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition. 

We see strong clusters of these seats containing high proportions of persons aged 35 to 49 years in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. They cover a range of political allegiances, from traditionally safe Liberal to strong Labor.

With 2PP swings to the ALP of about five percent in the first week of the campaign, we would expect to see a range of swings of up to 25 percent, with plus five percent for Labor being the mid-point.

Of course, the figures will change during the campaign and other demographic indicators will emerge to pull some seats to swing to the Coalition. We will map these during the coming weeks.

This election I’m writing some research articles for the Australian Financial Review and doing Monday morning interviews with Radio National on election modelling for the May 21, 2022 election.

Catch you on the campaign trail, folks.  


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2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2022 Tags : 

If you want to know which federal seats are most likely to swing strongly to the Teal candidates at the Federal election on May 21, check out the 🔗Map below.

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

The map shows  the percentage of top income quartile persons in 2022 Federal seats in darker shades of teal and is modelled by ADS from the latest available Australian Tax Office data.

Demographic break downs of national Newspoll summaries published in The Australian between early 2020 and the start of the 2022 election campaign, indicate that about one in eight voters in this top income quartile had swung their previously strong support in primary vote terms from the Coalition, directly across to Voices or “Teal” candidates, where a Teal candidate was available.

To put this in perspective, in early 2020, nearly half of all voters in this income group cast their vote for Coalition candidates and in the first quarter of 2022, this figure was down to one in three.

While this may well be the national sentiment among top income earners, where no Teal candidate is available at this election, there is still likely to be a smaller Two Party Preferred swing from the Coalition to Labor from about one in 12 voters among this group.  This disaffection from top income workers represents serious hurt for Liberal MPs in what have been their traditional strongholds.

We’ve been looking at the demographic breakdowns by income in individual seat polls and nothing we’ve seen so far contradicts the above trend up to the second week of the campaign.

Nonetheless, we will be watching future Newspoll summaries, presuming another one is available before the election.


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PROJECT 3 Australia 1975-77

Category:National 1966-80,Project 3 Australia 1975-77

 

Introduction:

Project two provided a complete national demographic analysis of variations in the Labor vote between 1966 and 1975. The demographic data was based on the application of the 1968 boundaries to the 1971 census results and the political data was based on national 1966-75 2PP votes and swings in the 1968 electorates.

In 1977 there was a national redistribution and a national election in quick succession. The 1976 data had not been collated by the Bureau of Statistics on either 1968 or 1977 boundaries by early 1978 when a review of the 1977 elections was required.

Click to continue reading:  Project 3 Australia 1975-77


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PROJECT 7 – Key Groups for 1983

Category:National 1966-80,Project 7 Key Groups for 1983

 

Introduction:

In this project I will deal with factors endogenous to the demographic model developed in projects one to siX. This part will draw together and summarise the relevant material on long-run volatility, the groups which have drifted towards or away from Labor during 1966-80, the 1980 Australian Democrat voters and voters living in the key 1983 seats. Particular attention will also be paid to the key seats and the relationship between votes and seats.

Click to continue reading: Project 7 Key Groups for 1983


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PROJECT 6 – Key Seats

Category:National 1966-80,Project 6 Key Seats

Introduction:

One of the facts of political life in Australia is that swings at election time are never uniform.

Table 6.1 presented below shows that since 1961 the range of swing has typically been about five times as large as the mean swing.

Click to continue reading: Project 6 Key Seats