Australian Demographics Analysis, Profiling & Mapping
I’ve been a bit busy lately analysing polling and election data to make any social media posts and I’d like to make amends by posting my comments I made on the 7.30 report with Laura Tingle on Thursday night. https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2501H076S00 (The interview with Laura starts 14:10 on the timeline of the video) My comments are
My editor has okayed me posting the original story on spatial electoral strategy from the Australian Financial Review’s special New Year’s Edition and here it is. It looks as though 2024 will be a rerun of 2023 in many respects, albeit with signs of cresting and then stabilising for population growth, prices and interest rates.
Had a chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods. I recall making the suggestion to John that if the Labor PM was planning on fighting another election over the impact of global warming, then it would be
There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of
Above is a snip of our ADS/Esri online map showing in shades of red the larger estimated Two Party Preferred swings to Labor in the March 25 NSW election at the close of counting on election night. 🔗 https://arcg.is/0rqGez My preliminary analysis of the March 25 NSW State election vote and swings appears in today’s
Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia Three key decisions that adults in Australia are making about their own lives, and their families, revolve around choosing who to vote for in an election, staying healthy and giving their kids the best education they can. Sarah Ho, who moved with
Here’s a snip of an ADS/ESRI online map showing dark red shading for the three federal seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. All three seats were won by the Greens from the Liberals or from Labor in 2022, despite big Two Party Preferred (2PP) swings and votes to the ALP. https://arcg.is/0G4iL1 These seats are coloured
If Labor’s 2030 carbon emissions target is blocked by the Greens in the Senate, most Canberra Observers would expect Anthony Albanese to crab walk away. But what could happen in a double dissolution if he called their bluff, to end the Climate Wars started by the Greens in 2009? 🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/PDF/Financial Review, Friday, July 15,
The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map. The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP). The
Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign. Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019
