Category Archives: Election Profiles

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ABC Report with Laura Tingle and John Black. My comments are based on the election profiling I’ve been doing on the votes and swings to and from the major parties and the minor groupings

ABC 7.30 Report – Laura Tingle & John Black

Category:Australia Votes,Election Profiles,Federal Election 2025

I’ve been a bit busy lately analysing polling and election data to make any social media posts and I’d like to make amends by posting my comments I made on the 7.30 report with Laura Tingle on Thursday night. https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2501H076S00 (The interview with Laura starts 14:10 on the timeline of the video) My comments are


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Seats won by major political groups in 2022 by SES & income quartiles

The odds still point to another close Labor win in 2025.

Category:Election ProfilesTags : 

My editor has okayed me posting the original story on spatial electoral strategy from the Australian Financial Review’s special New Year’s Edition and here it is. It looks as though 2024 will be a rerun of 2023 in many respects, albeit with signs of cresting and then stabilising for population growth, prices and interest rates.


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Nightlife Podcast Phil Clark and i discuss the rise of One Nation, the possible response from the Teals

Nightlife Podcast – Phil Clark & John Black

Category:Election Profiles,National 2026

  Well, we’re certainly living in interesting times and in this Nightlife Podcast Phil Clark and I discuss the rise of One Nation, the possible response from the Teals and the current threats to the historic dominance of the two major parties.  Listen to the Podcast  


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John Stanley of 2GB and John Black on 29th January, 2024

John Stanley and John Black – 29th January, 2024

Category:Election Profiles,Interviews with 2GB's John StanleyTags : 

Had a chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and  floods. I recall making the suggestion to John that if the Labor PM was planning on fighting another election over the impact of global warming, then it would be


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John Black was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about his current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17.

2GB’s John Stanley & John Black 30th Dec, 2024

Category:Australia Votes,Demographics,Interviews with 2GB's John Stanley,National 2025Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about my current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17, which currently puts Peter Dutton ahead in the race to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and hence form a Coalition Government with Peter Dutton as Prime Minister. Here’s


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Interview with 2GB’s John Stanley and John Black to discuss One Nation, the latest polls and the Labor / Liberal party.

John Stanley 2GB Interview with John Black

Category:Australia Votes,Election Profiles,Interviews with 2GB's John StanleyTags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley to discuss the rise in One Nation, the latest polls and how the Labor / Liberal party need to go back to their strengths.  Here’s the link to my interview with John Stanley:


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Aspirational Left voters rise again in NSW State Election

Category:NSW Election 2023

Above is a snip of our ADS/Esri online map showing in shades of red the larger estimated Two Party Preferred swings to Labor in the March 25 NSW election at the close of counting on election night. 🔗 https://arcg.is/0rqGez My preliminary analysis of the March 25 NSW State election vote and swings appears in today’s


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Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia

New Face of Politics

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles

Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia Three key decisions that adults in Australia are making about their own lives, and their families, revolve around choosing who to vote for in an election, staying healthy and giving their kids the best education they can. Sarah Ho, who moved with


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Here’s a snip of an ADS/ESRI online map showing dark red shading for the three federal seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. All three seats were won by the Greens from the Liberals or from Labor in 2022, despite big Two Party Preferred (2PP) swings and votes to the ALP.

Rise of the Aspirational Left voters reshaping Australia

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles

Here’s a snip of an ADS/ESRI online map showing dark red shading for the three federal seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. All three seats were won by the Greens from the Liberals or from Labor in 2022, despite big Two Party Preferred (2PP) swings and votes to the ALP. https://arcg.is/0G4iL1 These seats are coloured


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What if the PM ended the climate wars for good

What if the PM ended the climate wars for good?

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2022

If Labor’s 2030 carbon emissions target is blocked by the Greens in the Senate, most Canberra Observers would expect Anthony Albanese to crab walk away. But what could happen in a double dissolution if he called their bluff, to end the Climate Wars started by the Greens in 2009? 🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/PDF/Financial Review, Friday, July 15,