Jobs Recovery Was Underway In May Following Initial Hit In March/April

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Jobs Recovery was underway in May following intial hit in March / April.

Jobs Recovery Was Underway In May Following Initial Hit In March/April

Category:Health,Labour Market Tags : 

The recovery in many jobs was well under way in May. It’s been most pronounced in those hit first in March/April, working in hospitality, young home buyers, young casual workers also studying at TAFE and this is all to the good.

The downturn however continued in May among farming and rural communities, especially fishing (think lobsters in cargo holds of international tourist flights). This has impacted coastal and many rural communities.

The overall picture from March to the end of May shows mainstream suburban families (married, middle aged, with a mortgage and kids at school, two jobs that they really need, and going to church occasionally) to have been much less affected by Covid or by the follow-up lockdowns – down about five percent. These are the groups which weren’t picked up in the polls before the last election and which re-elected Scott Morrison as PM.  

The groups in deepest trouble (ten percent plus loss over jobs) over the period March to May were – despite a recovery in May – still the workers in casual hospitality and arts & rec jobs (agnostics, twenty somethings, living in small rental units, single, agnostics, no kids, Green voters).

Link to Map

 Jobs Recovery was underway in May following intial hit in March / April.

So, good is down only five percent and getting better slowly. Bad is ten percent and getting worse slowly. Spatially, Tasmania looks pretty awful, as do many rural and coastal communities, but the really horrible bits on the map are the inner-city suburbs, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, where Covid cases have been most concentrated.

Because the jobs lost in many cases have been second or third casual jobs and less well paid, the impact of jobs lost to the economy has been a bit overstated and has actually increased average incomes per job in many suburban areas, especially with large public sector payrolls.

This is, however, pretty cold comfort, for those relying on Government handouts and counting down to the end of September.

What was the real rate of unemployment in May? The short answer is 11.5 percent. This is obtained by maintaining the pre-Covid lockdown participation rate at the March level of 66.2 percent and applying this to the Civilian population 15 years and over, producing a potential workforce of up to 13, 770,061 in May. The combined numbers of officially unemployed and those who dropped out was 1,579,639. We used original or unadjusted figures as seasonal adjustments have become overwhelmed by Covid lockdowns and only original figures are used spatially for smaller areas. The original unemployment figure was marginally higher at 11.7 percent and 12.1 percent respectively in January and February 1993.

The figure of 11.5 percent also resonates with the new and more immediate ABS series on Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages, which shows 5.6 percent of main jobs were lost between March 14 and the end of May and the official March unemployment rate was 5.6 percent in March. The two figures sum to 11.2 percent.

This means the current unemployment rate is as bad now as it was during the worst of the recession in the early 1990’s. The unemployment figure then was marginally higher at 11.7 percent and 12.1 percent respectively in January and February 1993.

The current figures for the one touch payroll data have been recovering slowly from the initial impact of the Covid jobs lockdown in early April, and this 11.2 percent hybrid figure is likely to continue (barring a second wave starting off from Victoria) at least until the Government begins to wind back JobKeeper and JobSeeker in September.

The realistic figure for unemployment rates at that time will be determined by whether the rate of recovery exceeds the rate at which those now on JobKeeper or JobSeeker join the ranks of those actively seeking work and satisfying the ABS definition of being unemployed.

The official ABS labour market unemployment rate is now pretty meaningless, as participation rates will tend to decline with relatively older and younger workers dropping out of the labour market.

In fact, the first sign of a recovery in a recessed regional labour market can be an interim increase in the local unemployment rate, as formerly discouraged workers are encouraged to seek work by becoming officially unemployed on a temporary basis, while actively hunting for a job and hence immediately boosting participation rates and then growing employment in the longer term.

So the most useful indicators you should be watching for in coming months are total jobs lost and gained by region and accompanying movements to participation rates.

 

Text by John Black, founder of ADS and EGS. Maps by Dr. Jeanine McMullan, CEO of Health Geographics.

 

 

 


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The Eden-Monaro by-election will be held on July 4.

Eden-Monaro by-election 2020

Category:By-Elections Tags : 

By JOHN BLACK, Founder of ADS

The Eden-Monaro by-election will be held on July 4. With a week to go, Labor’s Kristy McBain is the bookies’ favourite on $1.70 to win, with published robo-polls giving her 53 percent of the two-party preferred (2PP) vote.

Despite trailing in the robo-polls and with Sportsbet paying $2.25, I think the Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs is pretty good value for money if you like a flutter. There are a few reasons for this, but first some background.

Eden-Monaro is pretty close to being Australia’s version of Magic Town, named after the 1947 movie featuring a fictitious version of one of the original United States polling companies. The pollster – played by James Stewart – is obsessed with finding a small town which is a perfect demographic and political sample of the USA. This meant it could be milked cheaply for perfect poll results on everything from toothpaste preferences to voting intention.

With similar demographics to Australia, Eden-Monaro tends to vote like Australia and return the same result: and this means the party winning Eden-Monaro tends to also win a majority of seats and form the Government.

Mike Kelly first won the seat for Labor when Labor’s Kevin Rudd won the 2007 election. He won it again in 2010 when Labor also held Government, and he lost it in 2013, when Labor lost Government. So far, so good for Eden-Monaro’s reputation as Australia’s political Magic Town.

But then the popular Dr Kelly stood again for Eden-Monaro in 2016 and won, despite Labor losing the national election narrowly to the Coalition. He eroded the Eden-Monaro’s Magic Town reputation further in 2019, by holding the seat on 50.9 percent 2PP vote, despite Labor’s failure to regain Government.

When we look into the demographics of Eden-Monaro, we see it’s very similar to Australia, in terms of its socio-economic indicators which cover job status, education status and income. It also contains some urban overspill from Canberra, some farming and fishing communities and a slice of tree-changing and sea changing retirement communities.

Click to view demographics for Eden-Monaro

The Eden-Monaro by-election will be held on July 4.

The differences between Eden-Monaro and Australia seem minor but explain why the seat went against the trends in 2016 and 2019, sticking to Mike Kelly as a well-regarded political identity.

Compared to Australia the seat, on average contains more farmers and farm workers and a disproportionate number of retirees. Our demographic profiling of elections back to 1966, shows farm workers and retirees have a weak class vote and are more inclined to cast a large personal vote for any effective MP seen to be doing a good job.

We did several national demographic models of the 2019 election and on the one we chose, Mike Kelly polled 6.6 percent more than the model predicted.

With a standard error of estimate of 4.5 percent, this was a strong performance and history tells us that when a popular sitting member like this retires, their personal vote tends to be redistributed back to the opposing party, especially when that party is nominating the same candidate.

In the case of Eden-Monaro, that party is the Liberal Party and their candidate is again, Fiona Kotvojs. It’s important to bear in mind we model 2PP votes, so one candidate’s overperformance, is also their opponent’s underperformance.

So, it’s statistically safe to say Kotvojs would have won Eden-Monaro in 2019 with up to 55 percent of the 2PP vote against a less effective sitting MP than Mike Kelly. Hence my tip earlier on the value for money bet.

But we’re now in 2020 not 2019. Relevant factors to consider since 2019 include.

Favouring Labor:

Anthony Albanese is now the Labor Leader, not Bill Shorten. Both men were on similar levels of satisfaction – 41 percent – at similar stages of the election process, but Shorten was on a dissatisfaction score of 49 percent before the last election, compared to Albanese’s 38 percent.

Scott Morrison performed below par during and after the bushfires which devastated the east coast of the electorate over Christmas and this region was just getting back on its feet when it got whacked again with job losses from the Covid lockdown.

Labor now appears to be running an effective postal vote campaign in 2020 compared to 2019, when it ran no campaign at all. This is a sleeper for Labor.

The National Party and the Shooters are reportedly up to some preference allocation tricks in Eden-Monaro to disadvantage the Liberals. Even if true, I suspect these factors can be disregarded. Voters have more important things to worry about at the moment.

Favouring the Coalition:

Scott Morrison has performed above par during and after the Covid-Pandemic and lifted his personal pre-2019 election satisfaction score from 46 percent to 66 percent and his Better PM rating from 47 percent against Bill Shorten to 56 percent against Anthony Albanese. Tick one for the Liberals. But this is a pretty big tick, especially in a crisis such as we’re now facing, when voters tend to rally behind the Government of the day.

The big group relatively unimpacted by the Covid jobs Lockdown is of course public servants, and Eden-Monaro contains a lot of these, due to some fast-growing, high-SES, urban overspill south of Queanbeyan and this included some swings to the Coalition in 2019. I suspect this is a sleeper for the Coalition.

This leaves us to consider the Robo-polls now putting Labor’s Kristy McBain on 53 percent of the 2PP vote in Eden-Monaro. If you were one of the candidates, you’d rather be McBain on 53 percent, than Kotvojs on 47 percent.

But other pre-election Robo-polls overestimated Labor’s 2019 vote by three percent at the last election by oversampling IT-savvy, highly-paid professionals and younger highly-mobile, agnostic, Tertiary students, with strong dependence on social media, who love to fill in online media surveys and polls. These were the groups swinging to Labor in 2019. These are the groups now most impacted by the Covid Lockdowns.

The robo-polls in 2019 also under-sampled working families with two reasonably secure jobs, a mortgage to pay off and dependent school aged kids to look after, and they also under-sampled church goers, especially those on the fringes of our major cities. These are the groups which swung to Scott Morrison and the Coalition and they are the group least impacted by the current Covid Lockdowns.

The big unknown here are how the public votes during the Covid pandemic and associated jobs lockdown and none of us will know this for sure until we get the results on Saturday night.

But on the evidence, Fiona Kotvojs is good value at $2.25 for a win. Very good value.

MAP NOTES:

We can tell from the online interactive map that the areas hit hardest in Eden-Monaro by the jobs’ lockdown in March/April, were those showing the strongest signs of recovery in May. You can track the impact of the changes by clicking on the stages from 1 to 5.

We also include map layers showing swings and votes at the 2019 election. The votes provided are based on modelling of all the votes cast in Eden-Monaro, not just the booth votes which are becoming increasingly irrelevant, due to major increases in pre-poll voting.

 

Comments from John Black, founder of ADS & Education Geographics and map from Dr Jeanine McMullan, CEO of Health Geographics.


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Impact on Australian Employment by COVID-19 21st May20 20

Impact on Australian Employment by COVID-19

Category:Health,Labour Market Tags : 

We trace the jobs impact of the Covid-19 labour market shutdown in a news article and a linked online story map published in The Australian today.

The story outlines the evidence that the jobs downturn impacts announced by the Prime Minister in late March were sudden and deep and that since then, there have already been some tentative signs of a small jobs recovery in those states with lower levels of new Covid-19 cases, in apparent anticipation of an easing of social distancing and travel restrictions. However, in those states with continuing cases of new community transmission the downturn in higher SES professional jobs has deepened.

The article is available only to The Australian readers and subscribers and covers the new payroll data provided to the public by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as a public service, while the data is still being developed.

The ADS/Esri maps in the article are based on 2019 Federal electorates and use the same data, so caution is advised. They are user-friendly for mobiles and are available on the ADS website at https://www.elaborate.net.au/impact-on-australian-employment-by-covid-19/

John Black, ADS Chairman. Dr Jeanine McMullan, Chief Mapper.

 

Click for Federal Seats Jobs Map

Impact on Australian Employment by COVID-19 21st May20 20


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Total Job Losses Due To Covid 19

Mapping the impact of Covid downturn

Category:Health Tags : 

A co-operative venture between Australian Development Strategies, Health Geographics and Education Geographics has set out to regularly monitor, profile and map big data on jobs and wages from 10,000,000 Australians during the Covid recession.

The jobs data is now being collected weekly via the Tax Office one touch payroll system and published fortnightly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The first of a series of maps has been published today on the three web sites via the following link https://arcg.is/1HeD5n It will allow readers to see the impact of the Covid restrictions and monitor changes as they are withdrawn in stages over coming months.

More detailed maps and profiling will be made available to clients of the three companies ADS, HGS and EGS.

The first maps published today show most jobs and wages lost by suburb have been close to capital city CBDs, coming as a direct result of the closure of gyms, personal training groups and theatrical productions.

The biggest per capita loss of jobs has occurred across smaller suburbs in rural and tourist regions like Mount Beauty in Victoria or Port Douglas in far north Queensland.

Suburbs across Australia relatively unaffected by jobs loss or per capita jobs loss have dominated by public sector jobs, such as Duntroon, Macarthur or Barton in the ACT, in remote indigenous communities like the APY lands in South Australia or Arnhem Land in the NT, or in mining towns like Mount Isa or Weipa in Queensland or Roxby Downs in SA.

As schools progressively re-open and restrictions are lifted on travel, hospitality and public gatherings, we will monitor the changes in jobs and wages for our readers and clients.


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COVID 19 Map published in the The Australian

Link to Covid 19 Map Published in the The Australian

Category:Health Tags : 

A demographic profile of Covid-19 begins to emerge from the chaos of the first wave of tests.

Dear Colleagues, this is our second update on Covid-19, based on the data we’ve been able to assemble so far, compiled from spatial profiles of LGA testing results in New South Wales and Victoria. More states providing this LGA data to the public would be greatly appreciated.

It’s important to acknowledge that what we’re looking at with this data is the result of the first wave of testing, mainly centred on Australians returning from overseas holidays.

Many of the older members of this group returned on cruise ships, so much so, that cruise ships have been identified by the Commonwealth as a country in their own right, when it comes to overseas sources of the virus.

The layperson’s profile of this group would say it’s the 60 years and over group, wealthier, retired and the layperson would be pretty right. I guess we all know a bit more about this group, because it’s the one at most risk from serious illness and this justifiably gets the most attention.

 

Continue Reading:

A demographic profile of Covid-19 begins to emerge from the chaos of the first wave of tests.


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COVID-19 and the Impact of the jobs market on Non-Government school enrolments for 2021

COVID-19 and the Impact of the jobs market on Non-Government school enrolments for 2021

Category:Education Tags : 

Dear Colleagues,  due to the changing environment and our response to COVID-19, I will be posting a series of updates on the current research being undertaken by Education Geographics, which may assist Australian Non-Government schools with their 2021 planning. You are welcome to distribute these updates to your school boards and risk assessment committees and your feedback would be appreciated.

At Education Geographics and Australian Development Strategies, we’ve been modelling Non-Government schools and their interaction with the Labour market since 2004.

We’ve noticed that the growth or decline in the number of jobs in a school catchment in the second half of the year tends to drive enrolments up or down in the following year (as you can see in the national chart on Australian Participation rates and Non-Government Market Share from 1998 to 2019).

 

Continue Reading:

COVID-19 and the Impact of the jobs market on Non-Government school enrolments for 2021

 


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GIS in the Classroom

Category:Education

A Conversation with Ali Pressel & Kyle Tredinnick

In October 2019, Teacher Advisory Council members Ali Pressel and Kyle Tredinnick hosted a breakout session titled “StoryMaps: Building a GeoHabit” at National Geographic’s Education SummitArcGIS StoryMaps is a system that allows users to tell digital stories with text, interactive maps, imagery, and more. The two high school teachers value this skillset and geographic information systems (GIS) in the classroom as they prepare students to see the world beyond maps.

In honor of GIS Day, a celebration of the technology in the field, Ali and Kyle sat down with the National Geographic Society’s Education staff to talk about their journey with geography.

Ali and Kyle didn’t intend to teach GIS, but it quickly became the main focus.

 

Continue Reading:

GIS IN THE CLASSROOM


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What Generation Z Wants from Work, Where

What Generation Z Wants from Work, Where

Category:Other Tags : 

Written by Helen Thompson.

A new survey of business and engineering students and their employer preferences offers vital insights on the next wave of the global labor force. By assessing the survey data country by country, corporate leaders can divine trends that give them a competitive edge in recruiting the best talent in locations around the world.

Article snapshot: In contrast to their Millennial peers, young professionals in Generation Z aren’t so keen to job-hop or work internationally, and their priorities vary by geography.

 

Continue Reading:

WHAT GENERATION Z WANTS FROM WORK, WHERE


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Mapping The Worl'ds Islands - ESRI

Mapping The World’s Islands

Category:Other Tags : 

BY 

There are over 300,000 islands in the world and most of these are poorly documented or generally unknown. A new United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Esri project has now mapped 340,691 islands of the Earth’s islands and created a GIS dataset that is publicly available.

World Islands GIS Data

As Charles Darwin noted, islands are incredibly diverse and demonstrate how life can exist in the most isolated locations. They also contain many unique cultures and languages, making them socially important. Islands are also all landmasses on our planet. Increasingly, islands are under threat from climate change and sea level rise in particular. The vast majority of islands are small and many are uninhabited. Documenting them might be the only way some of these islands will be remembered in the future. The USGS and Esri effort has created the Global Islands Explorer (GIE), which provides vectorized Global Shoreline Vector (GSV) data available to the public for download. In this database,  every island, including large continental landmasses and very small islands (e.g., Key West), is documented with satellite data, topography, or other raster data as background, and information about the islands, including area, names, coastlines, tectonic plates they belong to, and other information provided.

Continue Reading:

MAPPING THE WORLD’S ISLANDS


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The Trouble With Chocolate

The Trouble with Chocolate

Category:Other Tags : 

Story by  | Photos by 

A decade after Mars and other chocolate makers vowed to stop rampant deforestation, the problem has gotten worse

ELIZABETHTOWN, Pa. — Mars Inc., maker of M&M’s, Milky Way and other stalwarts of the nation’s Halloween candy bag, vowed in 2009 to switch entirely to sustainable cocoa to combat deforestation, a major contributor to climate change.

But as the United States stocks up for trick-or-treating, Mars and other global chocolate makers are far from meeting that ambitious goal. Over the past decade, deforestation has accelerated in West Africa, the source of two-thirds of the world’s cocoa. By one estimate, the loss of tropical rainforests last year sped up more in Ghana and Ivory Coast than anywhere else in the world.

“Anytime someone bites on a chocolate bar in the United States, a tree is being cut down,” said Eric Agnero, an environmental activist in Abidjan, the economic capital of Ivory Coast. “If we continue like that, in two, three, four years there will be no more forests.”

Continue Reading
THE TROUBLE WITH CHOCOLATE


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New Historical Map of Arlington Shows What County Looked Like 100 Years Ago

New Historical Map of Arlington Shows What County Looked Like 100 Years Ago

Category:Other Tags : 

A new historical map of Arlington allows users to explore what the county looked like 100 years ago.

The digital map depicts a mix of new and old pictures, showing the buildings that were standing in Arlington’s neighborhoods in the 1920s. By clicking pinpoints on a county map, users can check out the homes and businesses that are (or were) located on that site and read caption notes.

“I think that this StoryMap, besides being nifty, allows people to play with it, and also give you a real historical sense of what Arlington used to look like besides these fantastic visions of glamour columns,” said Falls Church News-Press columnist and local historian Charlie Clark, who made the map for the Arlington Historical Society.


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How Data-Driven John Deere Wins the Market

HOW DATA-DRIVEN JOHN DEERE WINS THE MARKET

Category:Other

Written by: Marianna Kantor, Frits van der Schaaf

Article snapshot: Using AI-based predictive analysis, John Deere helps its dealers spot growth opportunities in markets around the world.

As some companies pull ahead, others fall behind. It’s the essence of competition—and increasingly, data separates the winners from the laggards. Giants like Amazon, Facebook, and Google have propelled themselves to the frontline of the global economy thanks largely to the data they absorb and rapidly transform into operational insights, predictions, and new services and products. Today the data arms race has spread well beyond Silicon Valley into industries ranging from entertainment, where Netflix’s algorithms have made it a streaming colossus, to agriculture, where John Deere has revolutionized the agriculture tech space.

According to a 2018 survey of Fortune 1000 companies by NewVantage Partners, 79 percent of C-suite executives fear disruption from data-driven competitors. An overwhelming 97 percent report that their firms are now investing in big data and AI initiatives to become nimbler in this new business climate.

Continue reading:

https://www.esri.com/about/newsroom/publications/wherenext/john-deere-market-development-with-location-intelligence/

#esri #educationgeographics #johndeere #data #GIS #locationintelligence # AIbasedpredictiveanalysis

 


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Saving ‘Half of Earth’ to save humanity. On the occasion of the Half Earth Day, a look at what E.O. Wilson Foundation is doing to save the global biodiversity, and how organizations like Esri are contributing to the cause.

SAVING ‘HALF OF EARTH’ TO SAVE HUMANITY

Category:Other

On the occasion of the Half Earth Day, a look at what E.O. Wilson Foundation is doing to save the global biodiversity, and how organizations like Esri are contributing to the cause.

It’s not easy to assess the extent of damage that will be caused by natural calamities in the future. According to a new report by Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), seven million people have been displaced globally due to natural disasters from January to June this year. This number is estimated to more than triple by the end of the year to around 22 million. These numbers suggest that we are staring at a kind of devastation that will be unparalleled and need to take corrective actions to minimize the loss to the humanity. But what do we do? Perhaps the answer lies in saving half of the Earth.

Continue reading:  https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/saving-half-of-earth-to-save-humanity/

#halfearthproject #esri #educationgeographics #humanity #naturaldisasters #savingearth


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SPATSIZI FISHING TRIP 2019 – JOHN & JACK BLACK

Category:Fly Fishing Tags : 

Recreational Research on the local trout at Spatsizi Wilderness Lodge.

Wow! A double rainbow crowns a wet and cold Brisbane CBD this morning as Jack & I head off for a week of fly-fishing in northern Canada #Spatsizi. It was Jack’s turn for the adventure of a lifetime with his old man … which would be me, folks.

Wow! A double rainbow crowns a wet and cold Brisbane CBD this morning as Jack & I head off for a week of fly-fishing in northern Canada #Spatsizi. It was Jack’s turn for the adventure of a lifetime with his old man … which would be me, folks.

My fly-fishing companion #Spatsizi son Jack, chillaxin’ before the Air Canada Vancouver flight this morning. For those who’ve never experienced it, the Brisbane to Vancouver direct flight to Vancouver is one of the best international flights there is. Even better with a pass to the Brisbane Air Canada lounge.

My fly-fishing companion #Spatsizi son Jack, chillaxin’ before the Air Canada Vancouver flight this morning

Fortunately, Jack was on hand to help the Air Canada pilots fly big jet across the Pacific. Well, to be honest, we’d already landed.

Fortunately, Jack was on hand to help the Air Canada pilots fly big jet across the Pacific. Well, to be honest, we’d already landed.

After a quiet night in lovely downtown Smithers, the next day – Day 1 of the trip – saw Jack and I heading off for a week’s Recreational Research on the local trout at #Spatsizi with Alpine Lakes Air. Not bad runway, eh? as the Canadians would say.

After a quiet night in lovely downtown Smithers, the next day – Day 1 of the trip - saw Jack and I heading off for a week's Recreational Research

To follow the rest of our trip please click  Spatsizi Fishing Trip 2019 – John and Jack Black – Final.pdf

We hope you enjoy reading about our journey.


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