The Australian Labour market began a recovery phase in mid-2014 and this now appears to be continuing, despite fluctuations in the ABS monthly figures which now look to have been too discouraging in August and too optimistic in October and November.
When we steer a middle line through these fluctuations by using a 12 month moving average of the year on year original figures, the longer term evidence is that the national labour market is now growing consistently in terms of original employment to population ratios for the first time since mid-2011.
The 12 month moving average of participation rates has been moving in the right direction since mid-2014.
This improvement is being led by women and according to the ABS estimates the November 2015 original participation rate for women was the highest ever recorded. This may be correct, but a more reliable estimate would halve the number of extra jobs created for women in November, compared to October.
The real concern here for the November survey continues to be the flat figures for male jobs, which may be casualties of technological change, as well as stagnant demand across many traditional industries. We will review this in the full report for the November quarter over the next month, after the official figures are released.
Read Full Report : ADS Jobs Update November 2015 final.pdf