Tag Archives: Australian Development Strategies

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Political Voices: Past, Present and Future

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

Profiling of the Voices 2019 demographics by Australian Development Strategies shows that grassroots campaigns by Voices candidates against Liberals in 2022 – led by professional women – could be even more devastating for Labor MPs if turned against them in 2025.

This means that the Federal election of 2022 is not so much a contest between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but more a contest about what future Labor and Liberal Governments will look like.

In the mid-1980’s, male Tradespersons was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and Tradies dominated the ALP voting profile, and Female Professionals played an equally important role for the Liberal voting profile.

But both major parties have been challenged in 2022 by the loss of their historical bases of primary vote support during the past 40 years, among Tradies and Miners for Labor, and among Professionals for the Liberals.

The problem for both major parties is that, by November 2021, Female Professionals was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and there were twice as many Professional Persons as Tradespersons, Clerks or Service Workers. And their vote is up for grabs.

I chart the demographics underling the decline in the attached
🔗 PDF – Political Voices Past, Present and Future

Political Voices Past, Present and Future by John Black, Australian Development Strategies

Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.

Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.

Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022

Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Map showing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right)

 


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ADS-Jobs-Profile-Feb-Qtr-2015

Nov 2015 Australian Jobs Update

Category:Labour Market,Labour Market 2015 Tags : 

The Australian Labour market began a recovery phase in mid-2014 and this now appears to be continuing, despite fluctuations in the ABS monthly figures which now look to have been too discouraging in August and too optimistic in October and November.

When we steer a middle line through these fluctuations by using a 12 month moving average of the year on year original figures, the longer term evidence is that the national labour market is now growing consistently in terms of original employment to population ratios for the first time since mid-2011.

The 12 month moving average of participation rates has been moving in the right direction since mid-2014.

This improvement is being led by women and according to the ABS estimates the November 2015 original participation rate for women was the highest ever recorded. This may be correct, but a more reliable estimate would halve the number of extra jobs created for women in November, compared to October.

The real concern here for the November survey continues to be the flat figures for male jobs, which may be casualties of technological change, as well as stagnant demand across many traditional industries. We will review this in the full report for the November quarter over the next month, after the official figures are released.

 

Read Full Report :  ADS Jobs Update November 2015 final.pdf

 


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