Covid Impacts For School Planners

  • -
Covid Impacts For School Planners- Using available data from late 2021, the Education Geographics team calculated post-Covid spatial estimates from 2020 to 2031 on total population, pre-schoolers and school-aged children.

Covid Impacts For School Planners

Category:Education Tags : 

Using available data from late 2021, the Education Geographics team calculated post-Covid spatial estimates from 2020 to 2031 on total population, pre-schoolers and school-aged children.

Our preliminary EGS population modelling indicates that the big winners from Covid impacts on total Australian population growth have been the four SA4 ABS statistical regions making up the state of Tasmania, along with four regions within a two-hour commute of the Melbourne CBD: Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and La Trobe-Gippsland. (See the purple SA4 regions in our attached map).

Click Map to Zoom

Covid Impacts For School Planners Using available data from late 2021, the Education Geographics team calculated post-covid spatial estimates from 2020 to 2031 on total population, pre-schoolers and school-aged children.

It seems that the big Covid lockdown of Tasmania worked a treat to boost Tasmania’s modest but stable, pre-Covid state annual growth rate, from about 0.5 percent up to 0.7 percent between 2020 and 2031, with most of the gains coming in Hobart.

And it seemed that some Melbourne residents wanting a relatively safe work-from-home retreat still wanted the option of a convenient weekly commute to meetings in the CBD. If this wasn’t needed, well, they just moved to South East Queensland.

And the big losers? Take your pick of pretty much any capital city CBD across the nation, with greater Sydney a very sad sea of red on our attached map of Covid population impacts. No wonder the NSW Government are lobbying to crank up migration numbers.

As far as the other capitals went, those most adversely impacted after Sydney were, In diminishing order, the ABS regions of Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and then Adelaide.

By way of benchmarks, we anticipate that the annual pre-Covid national growth rate of 1.6 percent will drop to an annual average of about 1.0 percent out to 2031.

In terms of total Australian population, this translates to a predicted post-Covid figure of 28.5 million, compared to a pre-Covid figure of 30.3 million, a drop of 1.8 million persons, due to Covid impacts.

When it comes to pre-schoolers aged 0-4 years, the national predicted pre-Covid figure of 1.9 million could drop by 340,000 to 1.56 million, with the biggest losses experienced in the suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney

For school children aged 5 to 17 years, the expected national pre-Covid population could drop by more than half a million students, from 4.8 million to 4.3 million. At 25 kids per class, that’s enough kids to fill more than 20,000 classrooms that we’d expected to see by 2031, but now we don’t.

Where these gaps in previous forecasts are likely to be concentrated is fundamental to planning decisions over the next decade.

All EGS client schools will have this pre-Covid and post-Covid information for total population, pre-schoolers and school children projected as a summary onto their major catchments.

In addition, on request, EGS qualified professionals will be able to access EGS fine-grained data for school planning projects, such as a new campus, or for commercial expansion plans for a pre-Covid growth area.

Planning before Covid

Before Covid hit our shores in late 2019, population forecasts for urban planners were pretty straightforward.

After the detailed data had been published from the 2016 Census, projections were prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These projections reflected assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration trends.

It was all very official and credible and was produced down to relatively fine grained SA2 levels of about 10,000 persons and extensively used by schools, developers, big business and urban planners at all levels of Government and across the private sector.

The Health Department data was considered so reliable, you could take it to the bank and many investors did just that.

And then along came Covid in late 2019 and made all prior population forecasts redundant.

National borders were closed, many foreign students already here departed our shores, potential students and skilled workers were locked out, businesses were shut down for months at a time, working from home became the norm, CBDs were deserted and families began to drift outwards from Melbourne and Sydney into the regions and then interstate.

The December 2021 data from the ABS for mid-2021 showed Victoria lost so many overseas migrants and interstate migrants that the state was de-populating over the previous year. For planners counting on future population growth to underpin investments, this is genuinely scary stuff. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/jun-2021

Queensland was the biggest winner in terms of gaining these interstate migrants from both New South Wales and Victoria, with anecdotal evidence inferring most gains were in the outlying coastal regions of South East Queensland and possibly northern NSW.

In early January 2022, we were in fact about to fine tune our forecasts to take these latest ABS figures into account, but ballooning omicron numbers by then had pretty much spoiled that sense of post-vaccination optimism.

We will monitor developments over the next months for the expected peak and fade of omicron and the possible arrival of new Covid variants. When we have more substantial evidence of sustainable trends, we will re-visit our forecasts.

We have a way to go yet with this virus, unfortunately, and with the evolving impact it is having on our total population numbers and spatial growth patterns across the nation.


Search

Recent News

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map
Australia votes on Saturday 21, 2022 and commented by John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies
Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election
EGS Spatial Analyst and Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has just recorded a new video
Covid Impacts For School Planners- Using available data from late 2021, the Education Geographics team calculated post-Covid spatial estimates from 2020 to 2031 on total population, pre-schoolers and school-aged children.
Allan Shaw, School Whisperer, Farewell to the best job in the world
Covid Vax Map Update 9-9-2021
Vaccination Rates by Age and Jabs by Family Income by Health Geographics

Vaccination Maps

Flyfishing - Lockdown Daydreaming | Freshwater Fly Fishermen

Lockdown Daydreaming

So far, so good. But what happens when we check out the profile of the 20 to 25 percent of jobs which come late to the party?
Rubbery Jobs Figures I had a little piece in The Australian today on some of the modelling and mapping work we’ve been doing recently at Education Geographics, mostly for schools.

Rubbery Jobs Figures

Marketing Strategies for Schools - Looking beyond covid, spatially, Education Geographics for School Management & Marketing Strategies for education institutions in Australia.

We Told You So..

What’s in an Age?

Covid Jobs update from John Black, CEO of Education Geographics, October 6, 2020.

Watching The Watchers

Eden Monaro By Election snapshot of results
Jobs Recovery was underway in May following intial hit in March / April.
The Eden-Monaro by-election will be held on July 4.
Impact on Australian Employment by COVID-19 21st May20 20
Total Job Losses Due To Covid 19
COVID 19 Map published in the The Australian
COVID-19 and the Impact of the jobs market on Non-Government school enrolments for 2021
New Historical Map of Arlington Shows What County Looked Like 100 Years Ago
How Data-Driven John Deere Wins the Market
Saving ‘Half of Earth’ to save humanity. On the occasion of the Half Earth Day, a look at what E.O. Wilson Foundation is doing to save the global biodiversity, and how organizations like Esri are contributing to the cause.