Category Archives: Election Profiles

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Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s.

John Stanley & John Black 28th October, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles,QLD,Qld Election 2024Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this week, following my articles in the Australian Financial Review and my social media post on last weekend’s Queensland State election.   The interview with John was longer than usual and gave us a chance to deal a bit more in depth with the political implications of the State


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Election Time - John Black had a chat with Laura Tingle on the ABC 7:30 Report on Monday night about the possible range of outcomes for the political parties

Election Time Again

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2025Tags : 

I had a chat with Laura Tingle on the ABC 7:30 Report on Monday night about the possible range of outcomes for the political parties and independents at the national elections, due by May 17 next year. We also canvassed some of the issues driving voters when they make their voting decision. Fellow election tragics


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Financial Review Bruised Labor Back to Basics by John Black

Bruised Labor Back To Basics

Category:Election Profiles,Voice Referendum 2023Tags : 

I had an opinion piece in the Financial Review today on the demographics driving the Voice Yes and No votes. The online edition has a lot of the charts which you might find interesting. Here’s the link to my online op ed (behind the AFR paywall): 🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/demographics-explain-how-we-voted-on-saturday-20231012-p5ebuu Our chief Mapper and head of Health Geographics


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Profile of Modelled Primary & 2PP votes by Incomes for Families- with kids.

Forthcoming Federal Elections Current State of Play Across Individual Seats

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2025Tags : 

I had a story in the New Year’s edition of the AFR on the current state of play across individual seats at the forthcoming Federal Election. Here’s the link to the story, behind the AFR paywall: 🔗 It looks like Albo might need that beach house in 2025  https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/it-looks-like-albo-might-need-that-beach-house-in-2025-20241227-p5l0ss. There’s a lot that can happen


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The quest for unclaimed ground. I have an election strategy piece in the Australian Financial Review special New Year’s Edition for 2024.

The Quest for Unclaimed Ground

Category:Election ProfilesTags : 

I have an election strategy piece in the Australian Financial Review special New Year’s Edition for 2024. For AFR subscribers, the link can be found here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/odds-for-2024-point-to-another-close-labor-win-in-2025-20231212-p5eqv2 The thrust of the AFR article is that both leaders of the two major parties seem to be talking to the converted demographics which already dominate their own


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John Black was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about his current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17.

2GB’s John Stanley & John Black 30th Dec, 2024

Category:Australia Votes,Demographics,National 2025Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about my current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17, which currently puts Peter Dutton ahead in the race to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and hence form a Coalition Government with Peter Dutton as Prime Minister. Here’s


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ABC Report with Laura Tingle and John Black. My comments are based on the election profiling I’ve been doing on the votes and swings to and from the major parties and the minor groupings

ABC 7.30 Report – Laura Tingle & John Black

Category:Australia Votes,Election Profiles,Federal Election 2025

I’ve been a bit busy lately analysing polling and election data to make any social media posts and I’d like to make amends by posting my comments I made on the 7.30 report with Laura Tingle on Thursday night. https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2501H076S00 (The interview with Laura starts 14:10 on the timeline of the video) My comments are


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Seats won by major political groups in 2022 by SES & income quartiles

The odds still point to another close Labor win in 2025.

Category:Election ProfilesTags : 

My editor has okayed me posting the original story on spatial electoral strategy from the Australian Financial Review’s special New Year’s Edition and here it is. It looks as though 2024 will be a rerun of 2023 in many respects, albeit with signs of cresting and then stabilising for population growth, prices and interest rates.


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John Stanley of 2GB and John Black on 29th January, 2024

John Stanley and John Black – 29th January, 2024

Category:Election ProfilesTags : 

Had a chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and  floods. I recall making the suggestion to John that if the Labor PM was planning on fighting another election over the impact of global warming, then it would be


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There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of why it’s occurring.

What happened on the weekend to rev up the week ahead.

Category:Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2024

There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of