I’ve written a profile of the by-election on Saturday in Dunkley for the Australian Financial Review, putting it in the context of our 2022 National Election Personal Vote Profiles and our profiles in Aston and Fadden. See AFR story here: 🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dunkley-exposes-further-shift-away-from-major-parties-20240303-p5f9dw The three individual seat profiles use ADS modelling of personal votes to
The Eden-Monaro by-election was held on July 4 and won by Labor’s Kristy McBain, despite a small 2PP swing to the Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs. Notwithstanding the small net swing, the range of swings for and against the ALP were 25 percent, which indicated that there was a considerable range of political views about each
By JOHN BLACK, Founder of ADS The Eden-Monaro by-election will be held on July 4. With a week to go, Labor’s Kristy McBain is the bookies’ favourite on $1.70 to win, with published robo-polls giving her 53 percent of the two-party preferred (2PP) vote. Despite trailing in the robo-polls and with Sportsbet paying $2.25, I
The ADS team has prepared an exhaustive profile of by-election swings in Bennelong, New England, Longman and Mayo. A full report of the swings and their implications for the 2019 election appears in the Weekend Australian. Below is a link to the maps of the swings and the associated demographic drivers for Longman. Click away
Provided your humble correspondent is not eaten by a grizzly bear next week while trout-hunting in the wilds of northwest Canada, he will be back in time to help our team sift through the demographics of Super Saturday. We will be looking for demographically driven swings across the booths in Longman and Braddon that are
See for yourself in our Esri online map how local demographics fed into the results in New England and Bennelong by-elections and the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite. Click on the link to the map below. It will open with a default map of the Bennelong estimated 2PP swing to the Liberals, with the dark blue
2008 Gippsland by By-Election The first thing that stands out with the booth profile of the Gippsland by-election results is the strong link between Labor’s 2007 vote and the 2008 swing to the National Party candidate Darren Chester. This was an election at which Gippsland voters, who had voted Kevin in 07, decided Kevin wasn’t
ALP Two Party Preferred Swings, Demographic Correlations for Ryan 1998 Federal Election and 2001 By-election. Download Ryan By-Election Analysis March 2001
Demographic Correlations for ALP Swing in Aston By-Election, July 2001 Download ASTON BY-ELECTION ANALYSIS
