The Australian Labour market began a recovery phase in mid-2014 and this now appears to be continuing, despite fluctuations in the ABS monthly figures which now look to have been too discouraging in August and too optimistic in October.
When we steer a middle line through these fluctuations by using a 12 month moving average of the year on year original figures, the longer term evidence is the national labour market is now growing consistently in terms of original employment to population ratios for the first time since mid-2011.
The 12 month moving average of participation rates has now been moving in the right direction since mid-2014. This improvement is being led by women.
We need to exercise caution with monthly figures in this relatively new labour market series, but it does appear that increases in confidence shown by different surveys in the new Turnbull Government, by voters, consumers and business may be paying dividends in the labour market.
Read Full Report: ADS Jobs Update October 2015 final.pdf