Monthly Archives: March 2015

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Australian Jobs profile for Feb Qtr. 2015

Category:Labour Market,Labour Market 2015

This report focuses on participation rates and the political and welfare links to participation rates across regions. It starts with tables showing the lowest and highest regional participation rates and the corresponding stereotypes for each. It continues with (green) charts based on the February Quarter 2015 Participation Rates and continues with relevant (red) charts from recent elections.

This profile is based on jobs data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The primary source is the monthly Labour Force survey by Regions (6291.0.55.001), but includes national data from 6202.0, detailed quarterly data from 6291.0.55.003, earnings by industry 6302.0 Job Vacancies Australia 6354.0 and Demographic Statistics 3101.0. We have also made some use of ABS data on underemployment and labour underutilisation. As detailed data is only available in Original form, we use this, unless otherwise stated to be Trend or Seasonally Adjusted.

The modelling used by ADS compares this cross section of data with our Elaborate database and uses inferential statistics to project these sample results onto all Australian postcodes and Commonwealth Electoral Divisions. Material in the ADS Elaborate database is based on data from the ABS Census, Electoral Commissions, Household Expenditure Surveys modelled by MDS Data Systems, data on home loan arrears and a wide range of published data on political and economic behaviour.

Read Full Report : ADS Jobs Profile Feb Qtr 2015 final.pdf

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Labour Market – Feb Quarter 2015

Category:Labour Market,Labour Market 2015

Job losses in Northern NSW to impact State Poll

According to the latest ABS labour market statistics more than 55,000 jobs have been lost in five NSW regions during the past 12 months.

Comparing the Feb quarter 2014 with the Feb quarter 2015, these five regions – Richmond Tweed, Central West, Hunter Valley, Central Coast and Baulkham Hills/Hawkesbury – are the worst performing Labour markets in both NSW and Australia.

The five regions contain some 19 State seats whose MPs will be determined in the NSW elections on March 28.

Up to eight of these seats could change hands on March 28 and the worst performing region of Richmond Tweed contains marginal seats of Ballina, Tweed and Lismore, which are also impacted by the coal seam gas issue and strong local Green campaigns.

The labour market in Richmond Tweed looks somewhat similar to the Wide Bay region in Queensland, which provided two surprise provincial city gains for the ALP in the recent January 31 Queensland poll.

The excel file below provides basic labour market quarterly summaries for all Australian labour market regions – along with our region codes – and it can thus be easily resorted to for research purposes.






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2011 New South Wales Election Profile

Category:Election Profiles,NSW,NSW Election 2011

We normally look at a chart showing swings to and from political parties by a specific demographic group and it means those above the line swung to Labor and those below the line swung to the Liberals.

But for New South Wales last Saturday we frequently found ourselves looking at charts where everybody swung against Labor, irrespective of how far above the line the pro Labor profile rose.

For example, if you saw a group of Labor voters queuing up outside the booths at Bathurst or Ryde or Riverstone or Menai, statistically you knew every second one of them was going to swing against Labor, compared to their 2007 vote.

Read Full Report :   2011 NSW State Election Profile_1.pdf