2015 NSW State Election Profile

The current study takes a close look at the demographic characteristics of New South Wales voters who supported Labor or the Coalition in 2015, and who swung to Labor or to the Coalition between 2011 and 2015. We also take our first look at the Greens since 2010.

In this report we examine the demographic impact of similar state campaigns by the major parties in Queensland and NSW within the same short time frame and we make estimates of the difference a popular, as opposed to an unpopular leader can make to the results and to the demographics of the seats affected.

Invariably there will be mistakes made here and all we can do try to minimise them as best we can and confess our limitations. But it is worth trying, as this sort of inferential work breaks some new ground and doesn’t place the reader in a position where they are captive to the subjective assessments of vote counters or political players with a vested interest.

In 2015 a Queensland style negative campaign from NSW Labor about privatisation gained Labor votes and seats in the sorts of welfare dependent suburbs which swung to Labor federally in 2010. In 2015, this campaign won back traditional safe ALP seats dominated by these suburbs, but the lack of any credible plans for economic growth held NSW Labor candidates back in middle class seats won from Labor in 2011, some of which swung even further to the Coalition in 2015.

Read more..  2015 NSW State Election Profile.pdf

 

 

 

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    2011 New South Wales Election Profile

    We normally look at a chart showing swings to and from political parties by a specific demographic group and it means those above the line swung to Labor and those below the line swung to the Liberals.

    But for New South Wales last Saturday we frequently found ourselves looking at charts where everybody swung against Labor, irrespective of how far above the line the pro Labor profile rose.

    For example, if you saw a group of Labor voters queuing up outside the booths at Bathurst or Ryde or Riverstone or Menai, statistically you knew every second one of them was going to swing against Labor, compared to their 2007 vote.

    Read Full Report :   2011 NSW State Election Profile_1.pdf

     

     

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