Category Archives: NSW

  • -
New England and Bennelong By Elections in NSW


Category:By-Elections,NSW Tags : 

See for yourself in our Esri online map how local demographics fed into the results in New England and Bennelong by-elections and the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite.

Click on the link to the map below. It will open with a default map of the Bennelong estimated 2PP swing to the Liberals, with the dark blue streets swinging slightly to the Liberals and the lighter areas swinging strongly to Labor. Now click on the Layer icon  at top right of your screen to open the Layer list. You can see the legend in the map by clicking on the small arrow to the left of the layer called Bennelong Liberal-Swing . You can click on the layer Bennelong Polling Booths  to show each booth and click on the booth icon itself to see the results.

Save this map of the swing by taking a screen snip or leave it open in another screen and then click off the swing and open the other Bennelong layers. You can open more than one at a time and see the impact of the various demographics on the swing. So you can open Layers for creative arts, Green votes and Agnostics, to see the combined impact of all three. This isn’t rigorous statistical modelling, but it gives you an idea of how it works.

The strongest predictor of the swing was not the Bennelong Chinese born males (or females), but Bennelong Males with No Religion. These Agnostics at the National level were the strongest supporters of the Yes vote in the Same Sex Marriage Plebiscite and when we fed this variable into the modelling, ethnicity did not contribute any additional explaining power. Chinese born persons in Bennelong tend to be Agnostics, but it was their lack of religion, rather than their ethnicity which tended to accompany the biggest political swings to Labor in Bennelong.  This shows us we should look past obvious ethnic stereotypes if we’re trying to explain voting behaviour.

When you have finished with Bennelong, you can click on the Bookmark icon  at top left and select New England which opens a default map showing the estimated 2PP swing to the Nationals, with the darker green areas registering the largest pro-National swing. Once again, save a copy of this map and compare it to those larger local demographics most strongly linked to the by-election swing to the Nationals: 2016 ALP voters, Tradies, or those demographics dominating the booths with smallest by-election swings to the Nationals: in this case men working in the Agricultural industry.  We reversed the direction of the legend in this last one so the areas with the darker green colouring contain the fewest farmers and farm workers and the biggest pro-National swings. This confirms that the smallest swings to a party often occur in the areas of strongest support for the same party.

Click on the map or link below to view.

New England and Bennelong By-Elections - See for yourself in our Esri online map how local demographics fed into the results in New England and Bennelong by-elections and the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite. See for yourself in our Esri online map how the local demographics fed into the results in New England and Bennelong.



  • 0

2015 NSW State Election Profile

Category:NSW Election 2015

The current study takes a close look at the demographic characteristics of New South Wales voters who supported Labor or the Coalition in 2015, and who swung to Labor or to the Coalition between 2011 and 2015. We also take our first look at the Greens since 2010.

In this report we examine the demographic impact of similar state campaigns by the major parties in Queensland and NSW within the same short time frame and we make estimates of the difference a popular, as opposed to an unpopular leader can make to the results and to the demographics of the seats affected.

Invariably there will be mistakes made here and all we can do try to minimise them as best we can and confess our limitations. But it is worth trying, as this sort of inferential work breaks some new ground and doesn’t place the reader in a position where they are captive to the subjective assessments of vote counters or political players with a vested interest.

In 2015 a Queensland style negative campaign from NSW Labor about privatisation gained Labor votes and seats in the sorts of welfare dependent suburbs which swung to Labor federally in 2010. In 2015, this campaign won back traditional safe ALP seats dominated by these suburbs, but the lack of any credible plans for economic growth held NSW Labor candidates back in middle class seats won from Labor in 2011, some of which swung even further to the Coalition in 2015.

Read more..  2015 NSW State Election Profile.pdf




  • 0

2011 New South Wales Election Profile

Category:Election Profiles,NSW,NSW Election 2011

We normally look at a chart showing swings to and from political parties by a specific demographic group and it means those above the line swung to Labor and those below the line swung to the Liberals.

But for New South Wales last Saturday we frequently found ourselves looking at charts where everybody swung against Labor, irrespective of how far above the line the pro Labor profile rose.

For example, if you saw a group of Labor voters queuing up outside the booths at Bathurst or Ryde or Riverstone or Menai, statistically you knew every second one of them was going to swing against Labor, compared to their 2007 vote.

Read Full Report :   2011 NSW State Election Profile_1.pdf