2008 Gippsland by By-Election

The first thing that stands out with the booth profile of the Gippsland by-election results is the strong link between Labor’s 2007 vote and the 2008 swing to the National Party candidate Darren Chester.

This was an election at which Gippsland voters, who had voted Kevin in 07, decided Kevin wasn’t so great in 2008.

When we fed our 600 variable database into the 87 booths in Gippsland and benchmarked them against the 2007 Labor 2PP votes and the June 28 2PP by-election swing to Labor in every booth, we first checked the relationship between the 07-08 pro Labor swing and the 07 Labor vote and the correlations were nudging up to minus 0.5, well into significance territory.


Read Full Report – 2008 Gippsland by By-Election



    Mar 2001 – Ryan By-Election Analysis

    ALP Two Party Preferred Swings, Demographic Correlations for Ryan 1998 Federal Election and 2001 By-election.


    Download file icon pdf Ryan By-Election Analysis March 2001




      Jul 2001 – Aston By-Election Analysis

      Demographic Correlations for ALP Swing in Aston By-Election, July 2001

      Download file icon pdf ASTON BY-ELECTION ANALYSIS