Back in 1998 the major parties were under pressure from One Nation, particularly in the State of Queensland, where the fledgling party scored well amongst the older, rural, Australian born, less well educated and those with low-income, blue collar jobs. Fast forward to 2011 and the major parties are again under pressure with Green and Independent votes on the rise. This research piece, originally done for the Courier Mail in 1998, profiles the antecedents of the rural protest vote. 

 One Nation VoteCourier Mail September 22 1998_1.pdf

Labor lost the 2010 Victorian elections with swings to the Liberals from normally solid Labor demographics, such as female white collar workers, TAFE students and train commuters. These defections from the normally solid Labor base cost the ALP votes in its marginal seats. 

 2010 Vic State Election Profile.pdf

The recession is well and truly over, with demand for high SES jobs now so high that unemployment in August 2010 in some rich inner city suburbs was heading down below two percent and demand driven inflation must now be a real concern for the Reserve Bank.

 ADS Jobs Profile August 2010.pdf

Whereas the 2007 election result represented faith and resurgence for the ALP, the 2010 result showed a Labor Party profile dependent on handouts and habit.

 2010 Election Profile_3.pdf

In the 2007 election, we saw significant swings to the Christian Kevin Rudd led Labor Party across seats where religions such as Pentecostals and Lutherans were strongly represented and this relationship between the outer urban Pentecostals and the more rural Lutherans proved enduring enough to last right through to the end of the modelling process. Here's the data on these two faiths and on the major mainstream religions, by new Commonwealth electorates, so you can see for yourselves what impact the loss of Rudd makes on election night. 

 Religion by CED.pdf

In this note we are presenting some data relevant to the current Australian political economy, where we are in the middle of an election campaign, albeit a very boring one, and at the tail end of a major economic downturn, which is turning out to have quite a sting in its for poorer sections of the Australian community, in the outlying suburbs of our major cities and in our major provincial regions which do not contain any miners or workers benefiting from the mining industry. And yet no politicians are talking about unemployment as a current problem.

 ADS RUIN NOTES June 2010.pdf

In all the millions of dollars the Prime Minister and Treasurer spent on market research and advertising plans for their new resource super profits tax, they don't seem to have been told the richest voters in Australia are not Liberals, but Greens. 

Kevin Rudd in 2007 achieved the impossible and breathed life into the Whitlam era blue collar Labor voter. Across Australian working class suburbs and electorates, the Whitlam profile stirred into life via the sons and daughters of Gough. In fact the profile of the Rudd majority looks a little like a seventies Gough Whitlam rally held in a Queensland rural Church hall – Blacktown meets Nambour - with high school educated skilled and unskilled blue collar workers sitting side by side with the evangelical and activist religions.

 Election Report 2007

The May 2010 Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) shows that the 2009 downturn is well and truly over, with demand for high SES jobs now so high that unemployment is heading down towards two percent in some wealthier suburbs and demand driven inflation should now be a real concern for the Reserve Bank.

 ADS RUIN REPORT May 2010.pdf

According to the Swing Pendulum, the ALP in 1998 needed a swing of four percent to win Government. It won a swing of 5.1 percent and yet it still needed another 0.8 percent to win a majority of seats. Election night was a game of snakes and ladders for the ALP where a misguided tax cut strategy cost the ALP Government. 

 Electoral Snakes and Ladders.pdf