Archives for December 2013

AUG 2013 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

This profile is based on jobs data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The primary source is the monthly Labour Force survey by Regions (6291.0.55.001), but includes national data from 6202.0, detailed quarterly data from 6291.0.55.003, earnings by industry 6302.0 Job Vacancies Australia 6354.0 and Demographic Statistics 3101.0. We have also made some use of ABS data on underemployment and labour underutilisation. As detailed data is only available in Original form, we use this, unless otherwise stated to be Trend or Seasonally Adjusted.

The modelling used by ADS compares this cross section of data with our elaborate database and uses inferential statistics to project these sample results onto all Australian postcodes and Commonwealth Electoral Divisions. Material in the ADS elaborate database is based on data from the ABS Census, Electoral Commissions, Household Expenditure Surveys modelled by MDS Data Systems, data on home loan arrears and a wide range of published data on political and economic behaviour.

 

Read FULL REPORT – Australian Job Profile – August 2013

Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.

 

 

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    NOV 2012 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

    This profile is based on jobs data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The primary source is the monthly Labour Force survey by Regions (6291.0.55.001), but includes national data from 6202.0, detailed quarterly data from 6291.0.55.003, earnings by industry 6302.0 Job Vacancies Australia 6354.0 and Demographic Statistics 3101.0.

    The modelling used by ADS compares this cross section of data with our elaborate database and uses inferential statistics to project these sample results onto all Australian postcodes, 2006 Census Collectors’ Districts and Commonwealth Electoral Divisions. Material in the ADS elaborate database is based on data from the ABS Census, Electoral Commissions, Household Expenditure Surveys modelled by MDS Data Systems,

    Fitch Ratings data on home loan arrears and a wide range of published data on political and economic behaviour.

    Read Full Report – Australian Job Profile – Nov 2012

    Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.

     

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      AUG 2012 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

      This profile is based on jobs data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The primary source is the monthly Labour Force survey by Regions (6291.0.55.001), but includes national data from 6202.0, detailed quarterly data from 6291.0.55.003, earnings by industry 6302.0 Job Vacancies Australia 6354.0 and Demographic Statistics 3101.0.

      The modelling used by ADS compares this cross section of data with our elaborate database and uses inferential statistics to project these sample results onto all Australian postcodes and Commonwealth Electoral Divisions.

       

      Read FULL REPORT – Australian Job Profile – August 2012 

       

      Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.

       

       

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        FEB 2012 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

        This is the first time we have modelled per capita employment as well as unemployment and it was felt to be a good check on who is leaving theworkforce but not identifying as unemployed. This hidden unemployment has been growing over the past year, hiding a much higher real levelof unemployment.

        Some 18 of 69 Labour  Force regions had unemployment growth on or above 1.5 percent to Feb 2012, putting them on the RUIN recession risk list.

        The worst 18 regions were a mix of rural and regional Australia and some richer inner city suburbs from the capital cities. Profiling confirms we were looking here at regions dominated by older persons transitioning to retirement, and the rich. The richer groups were high SES professionals, with Arts degree and Education backgrounds, paying a lot of money on private and Catholic school fees.

        The regions which have been seeing reduced unemployment in the past year were large parts of WA, SA and some provincial cities along the east coast. Profiling confirms these were dominated by mining workers, especially those who commuted by FIFO or DIDO and workers in utilities. Both of these industries have had large increases in wages and employees in the past four years.

        Read FULL REPORTAustralian Job Profile – February 2012

        Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.
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          NOV 2011 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

          After four years of Labor Governments Australia’s unemployment level has risen by 130,000, with the original rate of unemployment up by about one percent. The regions to suffer the biggest increases have been in Queensland, where the tourism strips with their highly mobile workforces, such as the Gold Coast, have seen unemployment double to almost ten percent. More recent Kiwi arrivals could be among the drivers here. Inner Sydney is also experiencing the same pressures from recent economic migrants from neighbouring countries.

          To the extent that recent refugees from the Middle Eastern countries such as Iraq have been settling in culturally compatible neighbourhoods, then they could also have been driving up unemployment in western Sydney’s Fairfield Liverpool and Melbourne’s North West. Something certainly has been. Another possible factor, welfare dependence, particularly for Parenting Payments, is also high in these regions and this variable proved to be an excellent predictor of unemployment rates two years into the future. In other words, some welfare payments are easier to hand out in hard times than they are to take back in the good times.

          Read FULL REPORT- Australian Job Profile – November 2011

          Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.

           

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            AUG 2011 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

            This profile is based on data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The primary source is the monthly Labour Force survey by Regions (6291.0.55.001), but includes national data from 6202.0, detailed quarterly data from 6291.0.55.003, earnings by industry 6302.0 and Demographic Statistics 3101.0.

            The modelling used by ADS compares this cross section of data with our elaborate database and uses inferential statistics to project these sample results onto all Australian postcodes and Census Collectors Districts.

             

            Read FULL REPORT – Australian Job Profile – August 2011

             

            Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.
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              MAY 2011 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

              From May 2010 to May 2011the unemployment rate dropped from 5.2 percent to 5.0 percent, still about one percent higher than that inherited by the Labor Government, but looking surprisingly sensitive to any further interest rate increases.

              Unemployment rates are normally one percent lower in middle income suburbs, than in poor suburbs. Unemployment in rich suburbs is normally about one percent lower again than in middle income suburbs.

              This range of about two percent between the richest and poorest streets gets compressed in a downturn as high income jobs are lost first, often before the slump is identified as such, but then low income jobs get created quickly by the initial Government fiscal stimulus only to be lost soon afterwards, when unskilled wages rise during what appears to be a real recovery.

              In broad macro terms unemployment seems to be a lagged indicator, but all the while the profile of the unemployed is churning furiously beneath the surface of the national aggregates. For example, during the worst of the Australian down turn in mid-2009 low income workers had more chance of finding a job than middle income workers and were pretty close to high income workers.

              Read FULL REPORT – Australian Job Profile – May 2011

              Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.

               

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                FEB/MAR 2011 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

                Our latest pre Budget profile on unemployment to March 2011shows that about half of last year’s school leavers, who would normally be chasing jobs in February 2011, were sufficiently concerned at missing out on a job that they had hit the employment market the previous October and November.

                But the full seasonal downward adjustment of about 0.6 percent in February was applied to these school leavers who had found jobs four months earlier, and hence the current seasonal figures look somewhat rosier than they really are, especially for low to middle income earners.

                Motivating these low to middle income earners is the fact that unemployment for these families is now just under 6 percent, about what it was during the worst of the recent downturn in early 2009.

                Middle income families in particular have been squeezed over the past three and a half years, with their unemployment rising from 4.4 percent in November 2007 to 5.8 percent in March, wiping out the advantages middle class families normally get from a better education and more secure job.

                Full Job Report – Australian Job Profile – Feb / March 2011

                 

                Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.
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                  MAY 2010 – RUIN

                   The Unemployment Profiles from May 2009 to May 2010

                   The recession is well and truly over, with demand for high SES jobs now so high that unemployment in May 2010 in some rich inner city suburbs was heading down towards two percent and demand driven inflation must now be a real concern for the Reserve Bank.

                  While demand is strong for better paid jobs, the lower paid jobs boosted by the fiscal and monetary stimulus are fading, relative to skilled white collar workers and tertiary trained professionals. This would be a real concern for the Government.

                  During the depths of the downturn, in April 2009, these relativities between high and low SES workers were so squeezed as to be almost nonexistent.

                  Read Full Report – Regional Unemployment Index ( RUIN ) for May 2010

                  Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.

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                    FEB 2010 – RUIN – LGAQ

                    Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) – February 2010
                    Sponsored by Local Government Association of Queensland.

                    The picture to February 2010.

                    Since the series began in November 2007 we have seen five basic changes, outlined in the monthly profiles below.

                    From February/March 2008, when seasonally adjusted unemployment nationally was low, the unemployment profile of part time and high SES workers began to rise, meaning that areas containing these high SES workers started to lose jobs before national unemployment began to rise.

                    Higher SES workers are typically in industry groups such as Professional Consultants (correlation between the Unemployment Profile for high SES workers and Professional Consultants was plus 0.96). Consultants typically have the most casual employment contracts and are probably the easiest industry group to sack. At this time, interest rates were high and getting higher; mixed signals appeared in other economic indicators and Government fiscal policy was reasonably neutral.

                     

                    Read Full Report – LGAQ – Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN)  – February 2010

                     

                    Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.

                     

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