Monthly Archives: November 2013

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SEPT 2013 – FEDERAL ELECTION PROFILE

Category:Election Profiles,National 2013

Developed by Australian Development Strategies.

The results of the profile and the modelling show that Labor lost support from its own traditional voters, especially those who had swung to the ALP in 2010. The ALP gained some swings from mobile migrants groups, such as Kiwis and South East Asians, as well as from some traditional richer Coalition voters in established Liberal urban and country seats.

ALP candidates gained no perceived benefit from Labor’s big spending programs in Health, Education, Welfare or the NBN. Coalition candidates gained no perceived benefit from the Liberal Leader’s Paid Parental Leave Scheme.

Tony Abbott is now in a similar position to John Howard after the 2004 election where he could lose the next election if Labor is able to elect a strong leadership team appealing to traditional blue collar Labor men and to the fast growing demographic of professional women.

Download FULL REPORT  :file icon pdf  AUSTRALIAN ELECTION REPORT Sept 7 2013.pdf 

Postcodes that swing to the coalition are shown in blue. Postcodes that swing to Labor are in Yellow – Red.

The first range is up to 3.5% which was the national average swing, the second range is 3.5% to 7% and the highest swings are shown as 7% or more.

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Mar 2001 – Ryan By-Election Analysis

Category:By-Elections

ALP Two Party Preferred Swings, Demographic Correlations for Ryan 1998 Federal Election and 2001 By-election.

 

Download file icon pdf Ryan By-Election Analysis March 2001

 

 


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Jul 2001 – Aston By-Election Analysis

Category:By-Elections

Demographic Correlations for ALP Swing in Aston By-Election, July 2001

Download file icon pdf ASTON BY-ELECTION ANALYSIS