2008 Gippsland by By-Election
The first thing that stands out with the booth profile of the Gippsland by-election results is the strong link between Labor’s 2007 vote and the 2008 swing to the National Party candidate Darren Chester.
This was an election at which Gippsland voters, who had voted Kevin in 07, decided Kevin wasn’t so great in 2008.
When we fed our 600 variable database into the 87 booths in Gippsland and benchmarked them against the 2007 Labor 2PP votes and the June 28 2PP by-election swing to Labor in every booth, we first checked the relationship between the 07-08 pro Labor swing and the 07 Labor vote and the correlations were nudging up to minus 0.5, well into significance territory.
Read Full Report – 2008 Gippsland by By-Election